Constantine Alexander's Journal

Birds, bugs and blanket bogs - Scientists warn an entire eco-system is under threat

Several rare upland bird species are being put at risk together with other ecosystem functions by the effects of climate change on the UK's blanket bogs, ecologists at the University of York have discovered.

Several rare upland bird species are being put at risk together with other ecosystem functions by the effects of climate change on the UK's blanket bogs, ecologists at the University of York have discovered.

Most of our drinking water comes from these upland peats and several iconic bird species such as the dunlin, golden plover and red grouse depend on these wetland habitats for nesting and feeding.

The scientists warn that climate change threatens these habitats, not only from rising temperatures increasing peat decomposition, but also via altered rainfall patterns - with summer droughts drastically affecting the blanket bog hydrology.

The study, which involved collaboration with British Trust for Ornithology, Aberystwyth University and the University of Leeds and part-funded by the RSPB, showed that the humble crane fly, more commonly known as 'daddy longlegs', is a crucial link in determining the impact of climate change on these peatland bird species.

The birds depend on the protein rich crane flies as food for chicks, but scientists have discovered that summer droughts, which are predicted to increase, will cause significant declines in crane flies and subsequently the bird species that depend on them.

Based on a peatland model developed at the University of York and latest climate change predictions, the researchers warn that by 2051-80 the dunlin could see a 50% decline in numbers, with the golden plover down 30% and the red grouse down by 15%, all driven by declining abundance of the birds' crane fly prey.

The findings, part of a PhD by Dr Matthew Carroll supervised by Professor Chris Thomas at the Biology Department at the University of York, highlight the complex relationship between climate, bog habitats, insects, and birds.

It suggests that large-scale projects to restore degraded and eroded blanket bogs could be critical in securing the future of these internationally important bird populations, alongside both water supplies and the crucial role of blanket bogs as a carbon store.

The results have been published in Nature Communications.

Dr Andreas Heinemeyer from the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) based at the University of York, who developed the peatland model, said: "This is one of the first studies to follow this bug-to-bird link, down the food chain, between climate change and something happening to an entire eco-system with relevance to people."

"There is a very strong relationship between the moisture of the peat and the survival of the larvae of the crane fly during summer. July and August are peak times: if it is too dry, the larvae just desiccate and die and are then not available for the bird chicks the following year. "

The crane fly link was made as part of several longer-term studies - funded by The Natural Environment Research Council and Defra - investigating blanket bog ecosystems across several UK upland sites, including the Yorkshire Dales, Peak District and North York Moors.

Dr Heinemeyer, who is currently leading a £1m Defra-funded SEI project to further study the impacts of climate change and management on blanket bogs, said it wasn't only rare birds that were at risk from climate change.

"We might be in for big change. Not just in connection with our birds, but our drinking water as well," he added "If you end up being very dry as a blanket bog you store less water and your water quality seems to deteriorate as peat erodes and decomposes. So there seems to be a link, but it's not an easy link.

"It is a very messy picture as vegetation and bugs are also involved and everything works together like a jigsaw puzzle. If you change a piece, you will change others around it."

Dr Carroll, RSPB Conservation Scientist, said: "Our work shows that climate change could harm some of our most iconic upland bird species. The birds rely on crane flies for food during the breeding season, and the crane flies rely on the cool, wet conditions in blanket bogs.

"Large-scale peatland restoration projects such as the Sustainable Catchment Management Project run by United Utilities and RSPB are crucial in helping to make our blanket bogs resilient to climate change."

Citation: Matthew J. Carroll, Andreas Heinemeyer, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Peter Dennis, Chris West, Joseph Holden, Zoe E. Wallage & Chris D. Thomas; Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change; Nature Communications 6. Article: 7851 (2015); DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8851.

Contact: Alistair Keely
University of York

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Research spotlights a previously unknown microbial 'drama' playing in the Southern Ocean

Discovery highlights both competition and cooperation between algae and bacteria for iron and vitamins that may have consequences for life in a warming ocean.

A team of marine researchers funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) has discovered a three-way conflict raging at the microscopic level in the frigid waters off Antarctica over natural resources such as vitamins and iron.

The competition has important implications for understanding the fundamental workings of globally significant food webs of the Southern Ocean, home to such iconic Antarctic creatures as penguins, seals, and orcas.

At the base of that food web are phytoplankton, single-celled organisms that survive by turning sunlight into food sources such as sugars and carbohydrates. Oceanographers have long recognized that iron fertilization in the Southern Ocean will drive phytoplankton blooms.

According to Andrew Allen, the senior author on the paper, the new research indicates that particular groups of bacteria, perhaps specifically cultivated by phytoplankton, are also important for regulating the magnitude of phytoplankton blooms. The bacteria also help sustain the phytoplankton by supplying them with vitamin B12.

Allen is jointly affiliated with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) at the University of California, San Diego, and the Maryland-based J. Craig Venter Institute (JCVI).

The new findings, which were supported in part by an award from the Division of Polar Programs in NSF's Geosciences Directorate as well as by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, may also be key to understanding how the vastly productive polar ecosystem might respond to future change caused by warming of the oceans.

The research was published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Phytoplankton and bacteria form the base of the marine food web. The Southern Ocean encircling Antarctica is home to massive phytoplankton populations, and scientists have long considered their growth to be controlled primarily by the availability of iron and light.

"Through a combination of field experiments and sequencing, we have obtained a new view of the microbial interactions underpinning a highly productive ecosystem," said Allen.

The new research also may cause biologists to examine long-standing assumptions about the ecological balance of microbial communities in the Southern Ocean.

"I think this study also illustrates the eye-opening sensitivity of marine phytoplankton and bacteria to very minor additions of scarce micro-nutrients over very short--hourly--time scales," said Erin Bertrand, a former JCVI and SIO researcher and Division of Polar Programs' post-doctoral fellow, who is now an assistant professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Bertrand, the lead author of the study added that "this suggests that these marine ecosystems are naturally poised to respond swiftly to changes in availability of these nutrients. It's likely that these states of resource boom and bust are a common, perhaps critical, feature of this remote environment."

Electron micrograph of an Antarctic sea ice diatom, Amphiprora, with attached bacterial cells, illustrating the association between diatoms and bacteria in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Credit: Greg Wanger.

With this new understanding of the nature of the interactions between microorganisms in the polar ocean and the careful balance of competitive and cooperative behaviors that exist in this key ecosystem, Allen noted, researchers can work towards predicting how these relationships might change in the future.

The team's findings are based on research supported by the U.S. Antarctic Program in and around McMurdo Station, the largest year-round research station in Antarctica. NSF manages the U.S. Antarctic Program.

Flying aboard helicopters based at McMurdo, the research team ventured out to the edge of the sea ice in McMurdo sound, where they carefully collected water samples from the sunlit surface and returned them to the Albert P. Science and Engineering Center at McMurdo, in order to perform experiments.

The researchers learned that although the water appeared teeming with a particular type of phytoplankton, called diatoms, the diatoms were malnourished.

Unlike most regions of the global ocean which do not contain sufficient nitrogen or phosphorous for sustained phytoplankton growth, diatoms in the remote waters of McMurdo Sound were starving from lack of iron and deficiency of vitamin B12.

"Just like humans, phytoplankton require vitamins, including vitamin B12, to survive," said Bertrand.

She added, "We've shown that the phytoplankton in McMurdo Sound acquire this precious resource from a very specific group of bacteria. Those bacteria, in turn, appear to depend directly on phytoplankton to supply them with food and energy."

Results of the study, however, suggest that here is where it gets messy.

A different group of bacteria, also relying on the phytoplankton for food and energy, appear to compete with the diatoms for the precious vitamin, and all three groups of microbes are competing for iron, which, due to the extreme remoteness of the Southern Ocean, is a scarce and consequently invaluable resource.

The result, the researchers said, is a new picture of a precariously balanced system, full of microbial drama over the competition for survival.

The team further confirmed that a large portion of the B12 supply in the Southern Ocean appears to be produced by a particular group of bacteria belonging to the Oceanospirllaceae. This aspect of this study was facilitated by collaboration with researchers at the University of Rhode Island (URI) and the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Mass. which have been conducting studies on bacteria in and around the Amundsen Sea, another region of the Southern Ocean.

Citation: Erin M. Bertrand, John P. McCrow, Ahmed Moustafa, Hong Zheng, Jeffrey B. McQuaid, Tom O. Delmont, Anton F. Post, Rachel E. Sipler, Jenna L. Spackeen, Kai Xu, Deborah A. Bronk, David A. Hutchins, Andrew E. Allen. Phytoplankton–bacterial interactions mediate micronutrient colimitation at the coastal Antarctic sea ice edge. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015; 201501615 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1501615112.

Contact: Peter West
National Science Foundation

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Rogue wave theory to save ships

Photo courtesy of the British Ministry of Defense.

Physicists have found an explanation for rogue waves in the ocean and hope their theory will lead to devices to warn ships and save lives.

"A device on the mast of a ship analysing the surface of the sea could perhaps give a minute's warning that a rogue wave is developing," said Professor Nail Akhmediev, leader of the research at The Australian National University (ANU). "Even seconds could be enough to save lives."

Rogue ocean waves develop apparently out of nowhere over the course of about a minute and grow to as much as 40 metres in height before disappearing as quickly as they appeared. Ships unlucky enough to be where rogue waves appear can capsize or be seriously damaged, as happened in the Mediterranean Sea to the Cypriot ship Louis Majesty, which was struck by a rogue wave in 2010 that left two passengers dead and fourteen injured.

The research by Professor Akhmediev and the team at the ANU Research School of Physics and Engineering, Dr Adrian Ankiewich and PhD student Amdad Chowdury, is published in Proceedings of Royal Society A.

Professor Akhmediev said that there are about 10 rogue waves in the world's oceans at any moment.

"Data from buoys and satellites around the world is already being collected and analysed. Combined with observations of the surrounding ocean from the ship this would give enough information to predict rogue waves," said Professor Akhmediev, from the ANU Research School of Physics and Engineering.

The theory may also explain freak waves that wash away people from beaches, as rogue waves can sometimes transform into travelling waves known as solitons, that travel through the ocean like mini-tsunamis until they hit the coastline.

Professor Akhmediev's theory also applies to other chaotic phenomena such as light travelling in optical fibres, atoms trapped in a Bose-Einstein condensate and the ionosphere in the upper atmosphere.

The rogue wave is a special solution of the non-linear Schrodinger equation which is localised in time and space. The solutions were derived by adding terms to cover dispersion to the non-linear Schrodinger equation, forming the Hirota equations.

Professor Akhmediev said that he next plans to add more terms to account for the influence of the wind on waves.

Citation: Yasuhiro Ohta and Jianke Yang; General high-order rogue waves and their dynamics in the nonlinear Schrodinger equation; The Royal Society Proceedings A (2015); DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2011.0640.

Contact: Nail Akhmediev
Australian National University

 

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'Carbon sink' detected underneath world's deserts

Scientists followed the journey of water through the Tarim Basin from the rivers at the edge of the valley to the desert aquifers under the basin. They found that as water moved through irrigated fields, the water gathered dissolved carbon and moved it deep underground. Credit: Yan Li

The world's deserts may be storing some of the climate-changing carbon dioxide emitted by human activities, a new study suggests. Massive aquifers underneath deserts could hold more carbon than all the plants on land, according to the new research.

Humans add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. About 40 percent of this carbon stays in the atmosphere and roughly 30 percent enters the ocean, according to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Scientists thought the remaining carbon was taken up by plants on land, but measurements show plants don't absorb all of the leftover carbon. Scientists have been searching for a place on land where the additional carbon is being stored--the so-called "missing carbon sink."

The new study suggests some of this carbon may be disappearing underneath the world's deserts - a process exacerbated by irrigation. Scientists examining the flow of water through a Chinese desert found that carbon from the atmosphere is being absorbed by crops, released into the soil and transported underground in groundwater--a process that picked up when farming entered the region 2,000 years ago.

Underground aquifers store the dissolved carbon deep below the desert where it can't escape back to the atmosphere, according to the new study.

The new study estimates that because of agriculture roughly 14 times more carbon than previously thought could be entering these underground desert aquifers every year. These underground pools that taken together cover an area the size of North America may account for at least a portion of the "missing carbon sink" for which scientists have been searching.

"The carbon is stored in these geological structures covered by thick layers of sand, and it may never return to the atmosphere," said Yan Li, a desert biogeochemist with the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Urumqi, Xinjiang, and lead author of the study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. "It is basically a one-way trip."

Knowing the locations of carbon sinks could improve models used to predict future climate change and enhance calculations of the Earth's carbon budget, or the amount of fossil fuels humans can burn without causing major changes in the Earth's temperature, according to the study's authors.

Although there are most likely many missing carbon sinks around the world, desert aquifers could be important ones, said Michael Allen, a soil ecologist from the Center for Conservation Biology at the University of California-Riverside who was not an author on the new study.

If farmers and water managers understand the role heavily-irrigated inland deserts play in storing the world's carbon, they may be able to alter how much carbon enters these underground reserves, he said.

"This means [managers] can take practical steps that could play a role in addressing carbon budgets," said Allen.

Examining desert water

To find out where deserts tucked away the extra carbon, Li and his colleagues analyzed water samples from the Tarim Basin, a Venezuela-sized valley in China's Xinjiang region. Water draining from rivers in the surrounding mountains support farms that edge the desert in the center of the basin.

The researchers measured the amount of carbon in each water sample and calculated the age of the carbon to figure out how long the water had been in the ground.

The study shows the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the water doubles as it filters through irrigated fields. The scientists suggest carbon dioxide in the air is taken up by the desert crops. Some of this carbon is released into the soil through the plant's roots. At the same time, microbes also add carbon dioxide to the soil when they break down sugars in the dirt. In a dry desert, this gas would work its way out of the soil into the air. But on arid farms, the carbon dioxide emitted by the roots and microbes is picked up by irrigation water, according to the new study.

In these dry regions, where water is scarce, farmers over-irrigate their land to protect their crops from salts that are left behind when water used for farming evaporates. Over-irrigating washes these salts, along with carbon dioxide that is dissolved in the water, deeper into the earth, according to the new study.

Although this process of carbon burial occurs naturally, the scientists estimate that the amount of carbon disappearing under the Tarim Desert each year is almost 12 times higher because of agriculture. They found that the amount of carbon entering the desert aquifer in the Tarim Desert jumped around the time the Silk Road, which opened the region to farming, begin to flourish.

After the carbon-rich water flows down into the aquifer near the farms and rivers, it moves sideways toward the middle of the desert, a process that takes roughly 10,000 years.

Any carbon dissolved in the water stays underground as it makes its way through the aquifer to the center of the desert, where it remains for thousands of years, according to the new study.

Researchers gathered groundwater flowing under the desert sands. The amount of carbon carried by this underground flow increased quickly when the Silk Road, which opened the region to farming, began 2,000 years ago. Credit: Yan Li

Estimating carbon storage

Based on the various rates that carbon entered the desert throughout history, the study's authors estimate 20 billion metric tons (22 billion U.S. tons) of carbon is stored underneath the Tarim Basin desert, dissolved in an aquifer that contains roughly 10 times the amount of water held in the North American Great Lakes.

The study's authors approximate the world's desert aquifers contain roughly 1 trillion metric tons (1 trillion U.S. tons) of carbon--about a quarter more than the amount stored in living plants on land.

Li said more information about water movement patterns and carbon measurements from other desert basins are needed to improve the estimate of carbon stored underneath deserts around the globe.

Allen said the new study is "an early foray" into this research area. "It is as much a call for further research as a definitive final answer," he said.

Citation: Yan Li, Yu-Gang Wang, R. A. Houghton and Li-Song Tang; Hidden carbon sink beneath desert; Geophysical Research Letters (2015); DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064222.

Contact: Leigh Cooper
American Geophysical Union

The American Geophysical Union is dedicated to advancing the Earth and space sciences for the benefit of humanity through its scholarly publications, conferences, and outreach programs. AGU is a not-for-profit, professional, scientific organization representing more than 60,000 members in 139 countries.

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A single hair shows researchers what a bear has been eating

New technology reveals protein intake, mercury levels.

Researchers used single hairs from grizzly bears at the Washington State University Bear Research, Education and Conservation Center to develop a new, more precise way to look at a what wild bear eat. Credit: WSU

U.S. and Canadian researchers have found they can get a good idea of a grizzly bear's diet over several months by looking at a single hair. The technique, which measures residues of trace metals, can be a major tool in determining if the threatened animals are getting enough of the right foods to eat.

The technique can also help determine how much mercury bears are ingesting. A study published last year by many of the same researchers found that two out of three grizzlies sampled in coastal British Columbia had mercury levels exceeding a neurochemical effect threshold proposed for polar bears.

"You can use the technology for both applications," said Marie Noël, lead author of both the mercury study and a more recent study, published in Science of the Total Environment, on how the technique works. "You can see how much mercury they're getting but also estimate how much salmon they're eating."

Charles Robbins, a Washington State University wildlife biologist and director of the WSU Bear Research, Education and Conservation Center, said the technique is a big help in determining how bears are recovering and if they have enough habitat to meet their food needs. Grizzly bears are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the continental United States and endangered in parts of Canada.

"You can see bears chasing down salmon, but other than saying, 'bears eat salmon,' that really doesn't give you much information," Robbins said. "So we'd like to know where the energy and protein is coming from to create either large bears or small bears or cubs and help them with their reproduction. We'd like something that integrates all that information over a 24-hour period, a week, a month, a year."

Hair grows throughout a bear's active season, and because it is almost entirely protein, "it's a good indicator of the protein sources to the bears," he said.

The technique takes advantage of the fact that trace elements bind to the sulfur atoms in keratin, the fibrous protein that is a major component of hair. Previous techniques have looked at hair in bulk, giving only a picture of overall intake, or have involved laboriously cutting up hair and analyzing it segment by segment.

The new technique has a laser run down the length of a single hair. As it vaporizes one location, said Noël, the gases are analyzed by a mass spectrometer.

The researchers analyzed the hairs of 20 wild bears from British Columbia and five captive grizzlies at the WSU bear center. The captive bears were fed a diet of commercial bear chow and apples while grazing 12 hours a day on white clover.

For about a month, they were fed Yellowstone Lake cutthroat trout, which have high levels of mercury from nearby thermal features. Almost to the day, the researchers saw mercury levels rise in the captive bears, as well as levels of copper and zinc. The scientists then correlated those levels with levels seen in the wild bears to see what they had been eating.

"Taken together," the researchers write, "the pattern obtained from these three elements can provide information on salmon consumption... as well as the amount of salmon consumed... by wild grizzly bears."

Citation: Marie Noël, Jennie R. Christensen, Jody Spence, Charles T. Robbins. Using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to characterize copper, zinc and mercury along grizzly bear hair providing estimate of diet. Science of The Total Environment, 2015; 529: 1 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.004.

Contact: Charles Robbins
Washington State University

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Humpback whale recovery in Australia - A cause for celebration

Study in Marine Policy suggests that Australian humpback whales be downlisted from threatened species status.

Humpback whales, which have long been listed as an endangered species in East and West Australia, are making a comeback. Photo by Dr. Ari S. Friedlaender, taken under NMFS permit.

Australia has one of the highest rates of animal species that face extinction, decline or negative impacts from human behavior in the world.* However, over the last decade, there have been rare occurrences of animals that are rebounding and thriving. One example is the conservation success story of the recovery of the humpback whales that breed in both East and West Australian waters. This new study, published in Marine Policy and led by Dr. Michelle Bejder, reviews data collected in past studies and proposes a revision of the conservation status for the humpback whales found in Australian waters.

In Australia, the east and west coast humpback whale populations are listed as a threatened species with a 'vulnerable' status as defined by the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act). However, according to Professor Lars Bejder at Murdoch University Australia, School of Veterinary and Life Sciences and his international co-authors, data reveals that these whale populations are increasing at remarkable rates (9% for West Coast and 10% for East Coast; as of 2012), the highest documented worldwide. As of 2012, both the East and West Coast whale populations had more than 63% (East Coast) and 90% (West Coast) of the number of whales estimated in each population before the whaling era (approximately 1912-1972). Since humpback whales no longer fulfil the criteria of the EPBC Act, the study suggests, they should have their conservation status revised.

"Our conclusions serve as an example of optimism and hope in the conservation of marine fauna protection, as the relentless communication of marine conservation problems does not always encourage politicians, policy makers, and the public to solve them," said Prof. Bejder. "We highlight a success story, which provides hope and optimism that ongoing conservation actions can prevail."

Should humpback whales be removed from the threatened species list, a direct consequence for conservation biology could be the redirection of research and management funding to enhance the survival of other species and ecosystems that are in greater risk of extinction. Furthermore should removal or downlisting occur, the whales would still be protected in Australian waters as a Matter of National Environmental Significance, because they are considered migratory species. On the international level, the International Whaling Commission manages the global moratorium on commercial whaling, which is essential to maintain the humpback whales' successful recovery.

"Future challenges in Australia will be to protect a marine environment that contains growing humpback whale populations and to develop alternative approaches to ecological sustainability," said Dr. David Johnston of Duke University USA, co-author of the study. "There will be increases in interactions with maritime users, including acoustic disturbance from noise, collisions with vessels, entanglements in fishing gear, habitat destruction from coastal development and cumulative interactions with the whale-watch industry. Therefore, adaptive management actions and new approaches to gain public support will be vital to maintain the growth and recovery of Australian humpback whales and prevent future population declines."

Summarizing the key message of the review study, Prof. Bejder stated, "The recovery of the iconic humpback whales of Australia delivers both hope and optimism, as well as an opportunity to celebrate success at two levels: (1) the successful implementation of contentious international management actions to protect marine species; and (2) the wise and significant investment in conservation science, illustrating how society can respond to strong conservation interventions to achieve outcomes that are not simply for immediate, human material gains. While significant (often seemingly insurmountable) obstacles stand in the face of conserving many marine species and ecosystems, humpback whales provide an opportunity to embrace a conservation success."

Citation: Michelle Bejdera, David W. Johnstonb, Joshua Smithc, Ari Friedlaenderd, Lars Bejderb; Embracing conservation success of recovering humpback whale populations: Evaluating the case for downlisting their conservation status in Australia; Marine Policy (2015); DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2015.05.007.

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Study is first to quantify global population growth compared to energy use

Ending 400-year trend, global population growth has begun to catch up with energy consumption during past 50 years.

If you've lived between the year 1560 and the present day, more power to you. Literally.

That's one of several conclusions reached by University of Nebraska-Lincoln ecologist John DeLong, who has co-authored the first study to quantify the relationship between human population growth and energy use on an international scale.

The study compiled several centuries' worth of data from Great Britain, the United States and Sweden to profile the dynamics between a skyrocketing population and its consumption of energy from fossil fuels and renewable sources.

The data showed that energy use has generally outpaced population growth over the last few hundred years. Each generation has thus produced more energy per person than its predecessor, the study reported, even as the population has climbed from about 500 million to more than 7 billion in the 450 years analyzed by the authors.

This increasing per capita energy supply has also hiked up Earth's carrying capacity - the number of people it can sustain at equilibrium - and allowed the population to grow at an ever-faster, or exponential, rate.

"Broadly speaking, no one's really (quantified) this," said DeLong, assistant professor of biological sciences. "But it was important, because there are studies going back decades that assume this kind of positive feedback loop: We grow, we expand our capacity to extract energy, and then we grow some more."

However, DeLong and colleague Oskar Burger also found that this dynamic has shifted in the decades following 1963, when the world's population was growing faster than ever before or since.

During the subsequent half-century, the ratio between energy increases and population growth has narrowed, with the former now aligning more closely to the latter. A 1:1 ratio would theoretically limit the planet's population to a linear rather than exponential growth rate.

"I do think this should challenge our assumptions about future population growth," DeLong said. "The study supports conventional wisdom to a degree, but it also reminds us that (abundant energy) is maybe not something that we can count on indefinitely.

"Our study sort of plays into a deep cultural philosophy that we have the creativity and ability to solve whatever problem comes our way. The evidence shows that, from an energy point of view, we've done that a lot. But maybe that's not a guarantee."

While analyzing the data, the researchers also spotted unexpected fluctuations in the population-energy relationship at certain points in history. After closer scrutiny, they discovered that per capita energy yields fluctuated during times of socio-economic and environmental upheaval: the Little Ice Age, the Industrial Revolution, World War I and II, the oil crises of the 1970s.

Though DeLong emphasized that the data will not allow researchers to determine whether this instability actually drove changes in energy use - or vice versa - he acknowledged that the overlaps warrant further study.

"It's a cautionary tale, perhaps," DeLong said. "The human socio-economic system is a complex one with a lot of moving parts. Those things are really unpredictable, but generally speaking, we think about complex systems as relying on a stable throughput of energy.

"I think the timing of those peaks in variability tells us that we should be thinking about this in two ways: how what other countries do influences the energy supply, and how to maintain those flows without generating downstream problems."

DeLong said the study's insights might also help inform and refine population projections. The United Nations currently projects, with 95 percent confidence, that Earth's population in the year 2100 will sit between 9 billion and 13 billion people.

"In the back of our minds, it definitely is a goal to make better, more mechanistic forecasts," said DeLong. "What we're saying is: Every other population on the planet depends on energy to fuel their activities and maintain their bodies. Ours must, too."

Citation: DeLong JP, Burger O (2015) Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size. PLoS ONE 10(6): e0130547. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0130547.

Contact: John DeLong
University of Nebraska-Lincoln

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Wind energy provides 8 percent of Europe's electricity

The global cumulative capacity of installed wind turbines has gone from 3 GW to 370 GW over two decades.

EU's grid connected cumulative capacity in 2014 reached 129 GW, meeting 8% of European electricity demand, equivalent to the combined annual consumption of Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece and Ireland. According to a JRC report, the impressive growth of the industry will allow at least 12% electricity share by 2020, a significant contribution to the goal of the European energy and climate package of 20% share of energy from renewable sources.

The 2014 JRC wind status report presents the technology, market and economics of the wind energy sector with a focus on the EU. Wind power is the renewable energy which has seen the widest and most successful deployment over the last two decades, increasing the global cumulative capacity from 3 GW to 370 GW. Last year represented an annual record with 52.8 GW of wind turbines capacity installed worldwide, a 48% increase compared to 2013 and 17% over the 2012 record of 45.2GW.

With 23.2 GW of new installations and a market share of 44%, China is well ahead of EU's member states which together installed 13.05 GW. The EU however still leads in cumulative capacity and its 129 GW onshore and offshore wind installations, allowed six countries - Denmark, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Romania and Germany - to generate between 10 and 40 % of their electricity from wind.

European turbine manufacturers accounted for 78% of the non-China world market in 2014. In a context of high competition and diminishing turbine prices, manufacturers managed to improve their balance sheet thanks to better cost management and reduced raw materials costs. The cost of generating wind energy continues its downward trend, highly favoured by a reduction in the cost of project financing

Background:

The 20% share of EU energy consumption from renewables is part of the so-called "20-20-20" climate and energy targets for 2020, which also foresee 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels, and 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency. In October 2014 the EU leaders agreed on new targets for 2030: domestic greenhouse gas reduction of at least 40% compared to 1990, and at least 27% for renewable energy and energy savings by 2030.

Research on the status and deployment of renewable energies supports the European Commission's strategy for secure, affordable and climate-friendly energy - the Energy Union. The strategy, launched in February 2015, is based on solidarity among member states when confronted with energy supply disruptions, better connected energy market with free flow of energy across borders, improved energy efficiency that can be counted as energy source and lasting transition to low-carbon society. Wiser energy use while fighting climate change is both a spur for new jobs and growth and an investment in Europe's future.

Citation: Lacal Arantegui Roberto and Serrano Gonzalez Javier; The 2014 JRC wind status report (2015); Institute for Energy and Transport; DOI: 10.2790/676580.

Download the 2014 JRC wind status report

 

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Benefits of marine reserves revealed for wider range of fish species

By Science for Environment Policy

Mathematical models created to help design marine reserves have tended to focus on fish species where larvae are highly mobile but adults occupy relatively small areas. However, new research has extended these models to include fish species with different life histories, such as groupers and flounders, showing that they also benefit substantially from reserve protection.

Marine reserves have been shown to benefit fish populations and maintain catches for the fishing fleets that depend on them. In designing these reserves, mathematical models are often used; however, these tend to focus on fish species where the adults are largely sedentary and only the larval stage moves any distance. This is a pattern commonly seen amongst fish living on rocky and coral reefs and in kelp forests. However, many economically important fish species do not follow that pattern of life history. Instead, the juveniles will spend time in a particular habitat before migrating as adults to habitats elsewhere.

To understand how marine reserves, and particularly 'no-take' reserves where fishing is banned, affect such species, the author of the study modelled a system containing two pairs of adult and juvenile habitats. In the model, juveniles could move from juvenile to adult habitats, and adults could move between adult habitats. Larvae also moved from adult habitats to juvenile habitats. The degree of connectivity between the habitats could also be varied.

To test the benefits of marine reserves, three different fishing scenarios were tested. The first included fishing in the juvenile habitat only, and the second included fishing only in the adult habitat. The final fishing scenario included fishing in both adult and juvenile habitats.

For all three scenarios, the model was run with fishing in both pairs of habitats e.g. both juvenile habitats, both adult habitats or both juvenile and adult habitats, as well as in just one of each pair — representing the presence of a no-take marine reserve in the unfished habitat.

The results showed that reserves buffered the fishery against overexploitation. Protecting one of the adult habitats with a marine reserve when fishing was concentrated in adult habitats prevented population collapse as long as connectivity between the adult habitats was poor, limiting adult movement between the habitats. In contrast, protecting one of the juvenile habitats with a marine reserve when fishing was focused in these habitats sustained populations regardless of the degree of connectivity between habitats.

When fishing occurred in both adult and juvenile habitats, marine reserves were only effective if they protected a connected pair of adult and juvenile habitats.

To apply these results in the design of marine reserves, policymakers would need to understand how adult populations are connected. The models also assumes little or no movement of juveniles between juvenile habitats, and it would be important to confirm this assumption in any species to which no-take reserves were being applied.

Citation: White, J.W. (2015). Marine reserve design theory for species with ontogenetic migration. Biology Letters 11: 20140511. DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2014.0511.

Contact: J. W. White 

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The economic benefits of carbon storage in the Mediterranean Sea

By Science for Environment Policy

Carbon storage in the Mediterranean Sea could be worth up to €1722 million a year, a new study has found. The researchers performed a combined ecological-economic assessment, finding that the sea takes up an estimated 17.8 million tonnes of CO₂ every year, providing important climate change mitigation.

Marine ecosystems are essential for human life. They provide a host of ecosystem services on which society depends. One of the most important is carbon storage. Marine systems are thought to absorb approximately 2 billion tonnes of carbon every year, corresponding to around 25% of human emissions. The ability of the ocean to store such large quantities of CO₂ prevents the gas from contributing to the greenhouse effect and slows down climate change.

One way to measure the importance of ecosystem services is via their economic value. While many ecosystem services have been measured like this, the monetary value of marine carbon sequestration is as yet unknown. As a result, market prices do not account for it, falsely suggesting that this service has zero value. Because many public and private sector decisions are made based on market information, the unquantified value of carbon sequestration could lead to poorly informed decisions about the management of marine and coastal areas.

Therefore a team of researchers, part-funded by the EU MedSeA project, estimated the economic value of marine carbon sequestration, using the Mediterranean Sea as a model. The researchers performed a combined ecological-economic assessment of carbon sequestration, consisting of a cutting edge biogeochemical model alongside European Commission estimates of the social cost of carbon emissions, which approximate the economic damages caused by increased CO₂ emissions.

The researchers applied the model to the Mediterranean Sea under current conditions. Their results showed that the sea takes in an estimated 17.8 million tonnes of CO₂ each year. Most carbon storage occurs in four countries waters (Algeria, Greece, Italy and Spain), which account for around 84% of total carbon sequestration in the Mediterranean Sea, despite representing little over half of its total surface. Regions in the west of the Mediterranean Sea take in more carbon due to a combination of factors, including the changing properties of water, biological activities and a temperature gradient that affects the solubility of CO₂.

The researchers believe the current value of carbon sequestration over the entire Mediterranean basin amounts to €337.3 million every year. Of this, €281.4 million can be attributed to phytoplankton uptake, while the rest occurs through physical processes. While there is some uncertainty in these estimates, the researchers state that their approach provides a robust valuation of carbon sequestration services over the Mediterranean basin, which is, if anything, conservative.

This study is the first to put a price on the carbon sequestration services provided by the Mediterranean Sea. More broadly speaking, it contributes to the growing understanding that human life is dependent on the ocean. In time, the method could be expanded to other regional seas and eventually all seas on Earth. The researchers recommend the use of this model and the information it provides when making environmental management decisions.

Citation: Melaku Canu, D., Ghermandi, A., Nunes, P., Lazzari, P., Cossarini, G. & Solidoro, C. (2015). Estimating the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services in the Mediterranean Sea: An ecological economics approach. Global Environmental Change 32:87-95. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.008.

Contact: C. Solidoro

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