Coral Reef in Florida by Jerry Reid, WO-3540-CD42A, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (CC)
Coral reefs may be able to adapt to moderate climate warming,
improving their chance of surviving through the end of this century, if
there are large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, according to a
study funded by NOAA and researched by the agency's scientists and its
academic partners. Results further suggest corals have already adapted
to part of the warming that has occurred.
"Earlier modeling work suggested that coral reefs would be gone by
the middle of this century. Our study shows that if corals can adapt to
warming that has occurred over the past 40 to 60 years, some coral
reefs may persist through the end of this century," said study lead
author Cheryl Logan, Ph.D., an assistant professor in California State
University Monterey Bay's Division of Science and Environmental Policy.
The scientists from the university, and from the University of British
Columbia, were NOAA's partners in the study.
Warm water can contribute to a potentially fatal process known as
coral "bleaching," in which reef-building corals eject algae living
inside their tissues. Corals bleach when oceans warm only 1-2°C (2-4°F)
above normal summertime temperatures. Because those algae supply the
coral with most of its food, prolonged bleaching and associated disease
often kills corals.
The study, published online in the journal Global Change Biology,
explores a range of possible coral adaptive responses to thermal stress
previously identified by the scientific community. It suggests that
coral reefs may be more resilient than previously thought due to past
studies that did not consider effects of possible adaptation.
The study projected that, through genetic adaptation, the reefs
could reduce the currently projected rate of temperature-induced
bleaching by 20 to 80 percent of levels expected by the year 2100, if
there are large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.
"The hope this work brings is only achieved if there is significant
reduction of human-related emissions of heat-trapping gases," said Mark
Eakin, Ph.D., who serves as director of the NOAA Coral Reef Watch
monitoring program, which tracks bleaching events worldwide. "Adaptation
provides no significant slowing in the loss of coral reefs if we
continue to increase our rate of fossil fuel use."
"Not all species will be able to adapt fast enough or to the same
extent, so coral communities will look and function differently than
they do today," CalState's Logan said.
While this paper focuses on ocean warming, many other general
threats to coral species have been documented to exist that affect their
long-term survival, such as coral disease, acidification, and
sedimentation. Other threats to corals are sea-level rise, pollution,
storm damage, destructive fishing practices, and direct harvest for
ornamental trade.
According to the Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000 report,
coral reefs have been lost around the world in recent decades with
almost 20 percent of reefs lost globally to high temperatures during the
1998-1999 El Niño and La Niña and an 80 percent percent loss of coral
cover in the Caribbean was documented in a 2003 Science paper. Both
rates of decline have subsequently been documented in numerous other
studies as an on-going trend.
Tropical coral reef ecosystems are among the most diverse ecosystems
in the world, and provide economic and social stability to many nations
in the form of food security, where reef fish provide both food and
fishing jobs, and economic revenue from tourism. Mass coral bleaching
and reef death has increased around the world over the past three
decades, raising questions about the future of coral reef ecosystems.
In the study, researchers used global sea surface temperature output
from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model-2 for the pre-industrial period
though 2100 to project rates of coral bleaching.
Because initial results showed that past temperature increases
should have bleached reefs more often than has actually occurred,
researchers looked into ways that corals may be able to adapt to warming
and delay the bleaching process.
The article calls for further research to test the rate and limit of
different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and
ocean basins to determine if, and how much, corals can actually respond
to increasing thermal stress.
Citation: Cheryl A. Logan, John P. Dunne, C. Mark Eakin, Simon D. Donner; Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching; Global Change Biology DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12390
NOAA's Coral Reef Conservation Program funded the
study.
Contact: Ben Sherman
301-713-3066
NOAA Headquarters