New research from Georgia Aquarium and Georgia Institute of
Technology provides evidence that a suite of techniques called
"metabolomics" can be used to determine the health status of whale
sharks (Rhincodon typus), the world's largest fish species. The
study, led by Dr. Alistair Dove, Director of Research & Conservation
at Georgia Aquarium and an adjunct professor at Georgia Tech, found
that the major difference between healthy and unhealthy sharks was the
concentration of homarine in their in serum—indicating that homarine is a
useful biomarker of health status for the species.
The paper, "Biomarkers of whale shark health: a metabolomic approach", which is published in the journal PLOS ONE,
is especially significant to the veterinary science community because
the study documents the results of a rare opportunity to collect and
analyze blood from whale sharks. The paper also comprises the only work
yet carried out on biochemistry of the world's largest fish.
"This research and its resulting findings are vitally important to
ensuring Georgia Aquarium's and the scientific community's care,
knowledge, and understanding of not only whale sharks, but similar
species of sharks and rays," said Dr. Greg Bossart, Senior Vice
President of Animal Health, Research & Conservation and Chief
Veterinary Officer at Georgia Aquarium. "The publishing of this clinical
research provides a greater opportunity for scientists and Zoological
professionals to understand the Animals in our care and can be used to
help wild populations, which puts us ahead of the curve in the
integrated understanding of animal biology."
Previous research and observations showed that traditional veterinary
blood chemistry tests were not as useful with whale sharks; most likely
because such tests are designed for mammals and comparatively less is
known about shark and ray blood. Dr. Dove and six colleagues from
Georgia Tech set out to significantly increase knowledge of whale shark
biochemistry by examining the metabolite composition of all six whale
sharks which have been cared for at Georgia Aquarium. By using
metabolomics, the researchers were able to determine which chemical
compounds were present in the shark blood, without knowing ahead of time
what they are.
"It is vitally important for us to continue to learn how to best
support the whale sharks in our care," said Dove, who, along with the GA
Tech team, spent three years developing the research. "We began the
study by asking ourselves, 'What should we be looking for in whale shark
serum?' and 'What compounds in serum might best indicate the health
status of whale sharks?'"
Not only did the study determine that metabolic profiles of
unhealthy whale sharks were markedly different than those of healthy
sharks in general and particularly the different levels of homarine, but
the research team also identified more than 25 other compounds that
differed in concentration based on the health of the individual.
Findings detailed in "Biomarkers of whale shark health: a
metabolomic approach" will help scientists and veterinarians to better
understand the biology of whale sharks in their natural setting, and by
homology, the biology of other shark and ray species that may be
similar. Further, data compiled in the research will provide a reference
library about whale shark biochemistry that can be consulted in future
studies and importantly, adds new knowledge that will be useful to those
who care for sharks and rays on a daily basis.
"This sort of advanced research is only made possible through
collaboration between aquarium scientists and experts at our partner
universities," said Dr. Dove.
The research team included, from Georgia Tech: Dr. Johannes Leisen,
research scientist; Dr. Manshi Zhou, post-doctoral candidate; Dr.
Jonathan Byrne, post-doctoral candidate; Krista Lim-Hing, student; Dr.
Leslie Gelbaum, Dr. Mark Viant, Dr. Julia Kubanek, and Dr. Facundo
Fernandez; and from Georgia Aquarium: Harry D. Webb, research
technician. Additional support also came from Georgia Tech's National
Science Foundation (NSF) undergraduate research program in mathematical
biology.
The Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta, Georgia, is the world's largest with more
than 10 million gallons of water and the largest collection of aquatic
animals. The mission of Georgia Aquarium is to be an entertaining,
educational and scientific institution featuring exhibits and programs
of the highest standards; offering engaging and exciting guest
experiences promoting the conservation of aquatic biodiversity
throughout the world. Georgia Aquarium is an accredited member of the
Association of Zoos and Aquariums and the Alliance of Marine Mammal
Parks and Aquariums.
The PRO KLIMA LIFE project focusing on mobile air-conditioning systems (MAC systems)
recently created an animated short film, ‘Cool down but be smart’.
The film addresses the environmental problems related to
the additional consumption of fuel due to the use of the MAC system,
and offers drivers recommendations on how and when they should use
their MAC system. Available in German and English, the film also warns
of the negative environmental impact of the refrigerantR134a.
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has
predicted that up to nearly one billion air-conditioned vehicles will
be on the road by 2015. The commonly used refrigerant is extremely
harmful to the climate. As a result, the project beneficiary, Deutsche
Umwelthilfe (DUH), and its partner Verkehrsclub Deutschland, launched
the informational campaign PRO KLIMA to draw attention to this problem
and raise awareness of efficient, alternative MAC systems that use natural refrigerants.
The LIFE project’s ultimate goal is that all new vehicles
will be equipped with environmentally-friendly and efficient air
conditioning systems within four years of the project’s completion.
Come rain or shine (or even snow), some glaciers of the Himalayas will continue shrinking for many years to come.
The forecast by Brigham Young University geology professor Summer
Rupper comes after her research on Bhutan, a region in the bull's-eye of
the monsoonal Himalayas. Published in Geophysical Research Letters,
Rupper's most conservative findings indicate that even if climate
remained steady, almost 10 percent of Bhutan's glaciers would vanish
within the next few decades. What's more, the amount of melt water
coming off these glaciers could drop by 30 percent.
Rupper says increasing temperatures are just one culprit behind
glacier retreat. A number of climate factors such as wind, humidity,
precipitation and evaporation of any given year can affect how glaciers
behave. With some Bhutanese glaciers as long as 13 miles, an imbalance
in any of these areas can take them decades to completely respond.
"These particular glaciers have seen so much warming in the past few
decades that they're currently playing lots of catch up," Rupper
explains.
In fact, snowfall rates in Bhutan would need to almost double to
avoid glacier retreat, but it's not a likely scenario because warmer
temperatures lead to rainfall instead of snow. If glaciers continue to
lose more water than gained, the combination of more rain and more
glacial melt increases the probability of flooding — which can be
devastating to neighboring villages.
"Much of the world's population is just downstream of the
Himalayas," Rupper points out. "A lot of culture and history could be
lost, not just for Bhutan but for neighboring nations facing the same
risks."
To illustrate the likelihood of such an outcome, Rupper took her
research one moderate step further. Her results show if temperatures
were to rise just 1 degree Celsius, the Bhutanese glaciers would shrink
by 25 percent and the annual melt water would drop by as much as 65
percent. With climate continuing to warm, such a prediction is not
altogether unlikely, especially given the years it can take for glaciers
to react to change.
To make more precise predictions for Bhutan, Rupper and BYU graduate
students Landon Burgener and Josh Maurer joined researchers from
Columbia University, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, NASA and
Bhutan's Department of Hydro-Meteorological Services. Together, they
trekked through rainforests and barren cliffs to reach some of the
world's most remote blocks of ice. There they placed a weather station
and glacier monitoring equipment that can be used to gather real-time
data in the months and years to follow.
"It took seven days just to get to the target glacier," Rupper
recounts, having returned in October. "For our pack animals, horsemen
and guides, that terrain and elevation are a way of life, but I'll admit
the westerners in the group were a bit slower-moving."
Rupper's forecasts and fieldwork are among the first to look at
glaciers in Bhutan, and the government hopes to use her research to make
long-term decisions about the nation's water resources and flooding
hazards.
"They could potentially have a better idea of where best to fortify
homes or build new power plants," says Rupper. "Hopefully, good science
can lead to good engineering solutions for the changes we're likely to
witness in the coming decades."
IUCN has recently signed a memorandum of understanding with
the Government of the Cook Islands to support the establishment of the
world’s largest marine protected area – the Cook Islands Marine Park.
Southern Cook Islands
The park will contribute to conserving the region’s marine
biodiversity, boosting local economic growth and preserving the health
of the ocean globally.
“This is a landmark decision and should be treated as an example to follow by countries around the world,” says Carl Gustaf Lundin, Director of IUCN’s Global Marine and Polar Programme. “With
just over 2% of the world’s ocean currently protected, this is a major
step towards safeguarding our planet’s marine realm and the priceless
services it provides us, including oxygen, food and water.”
The agreement follows the Cook Islands’ announcement of the creation of the park in August 2012.
The Cook Islands Marine Park covers 1.065 million square kilometres
(411,000 square miles) - an area more than twice the size of Papua New
Guinea. It is the largest marine park ever declared by a single country
for integrated ocean conservation and management. The area includes
remote atolls, high volcanic islands surrounded by fringing reefs and
unspoilt fauna associated with underwater mountains. It also hosts rich
Pacific marine biodiversity, including rare seabirds, blue whales, manta
rays and several shark species, a number of which are listed as
threatened on The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™.
“Protecting the Pacific, one of the last pristine marine ecosystems,
is the Cooks’ major contribution to the well-being of not only our
peoples but of humanity in general,” says Henry Puna, Prime Minister of the Cook Islands. “The
marine park will provide the necessary framework to promote sustainable
development by balancing economic growth interests such as tourism,
fishing and deep sea mining with conserving biodiversity in the ocean.”
Similarly to the Phoenix Islands Protected Area in Kiribati, the Cook
Islands Marine Park will contain a variety of zones with different
levels of protection, including areas where all fishing will be banned,
and buffer areas where tourism and carefully monitored fishing will be
allowed.
The creation of the park will involve identifying where and how the
area is being used, what natural resources and habitats it hosts and how
they can be used sustainably. The IUCN World Commission on Protected
Areas will also provide assistance to link the rights that local people
have traditionally enjoyed in relation to the park’s natural resources
with existing legislation, integrating the traditional methods of
managing the area into innovative large-scale marine conservation
initiatives. This should foster community ownership of marine
conservation areas and support scientific and policy research by
national and regional institutions, according to IUCN.
“Thanks to initiatives like this one, small island nations such as
the Cook Islands and Kiribati are beginning to confidently act as ‘large
ocean developing states’, leading the way to conserve large areas of
national Exclusive Economic Zones in the Pacific Ocean – places where
the state has special rights over the exploration and use of marine
resources,” says Jan Steffen, IUCN Oceania Regional Marine Programme Coordinator.
IUCN’s involvement in the establishment of the Cook Islands Marine
Park will be financially supported by Global Blue – a traveller
service-related company headquartered in Switzerland. Other conservation
partners that signed the memorandum of understanding with the
Government of the Cook Islands include the South Pacific Regional
Environment Program (SPREP), the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP), Conservation International and the Marine Science Institute of
the University of California Santa Barbara.
The loss of sensitive species in streams begins to occur at the
initial stages of urban development, according to a new study by the
USGS. The study found that streams are more sensitive to development
than previously understood.
"We tend not to think of waterways as fragile organisms, and yet
that is exactly what the results of this scientific investigation appear
to be telling us," said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. "Streams are more
than water, but rather communities of interdependent aquatic life, the
most sensitive of which are easily disrupted by urbanization."
Contaminants, habitat destruction, and increasing streamflow
flashiness resulting from urban development can degrade stream
ecosystems and cause degradation downstream with adverse effects on
biological communities and on economically valuable resources, such as
fisheries and tourism.
For example, by the time urban development had approached 20 percent
in watersheds in the New England area, the aquatic invertebrate
community had undergone a change in species composition of about 25
percent.
The study also found that the health of highly-degraded streams can
be improved by implementing management actions that are designed to
reduce specific stressors.
"Biological communities were not resistant to even low levels of
urban development. In the study sensitive invertebrate species were
being lost over the initial stages of development in relatively
undisturbed watersheds," said Dr. Gerard McMahon, lead scientist on the
study. "Understanding how stream ecosystems are impacted by urban
development can assist in the development of management actions to
protect and rehabilitate urban stream ecosystems."
Multiple streams in nine metropolitan areas
(http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/urban/html/wherewestudied.html) across the
continental U.S. were sampled to assess the effects of urban development
on stream ecosystems. Study areas include Atlanta, Ga., Birmingham,
Ala., Boston, Mass., Dallas, Texas, Denver, Colo., Milwaukee, Wis.,
Portland, Ore., Raleigh, N.C., and Salt Lake City, Utah.
The study also found that the effects of urbanization on the
biological community vary geographically depending on the predominant
land cover and the health of the community prior to urban development.
In the study, the greatest loss of sensitive species occurred in Boston,
Portland, Salt Lake City, Birmingham, Atlanta, and Raleigh metropolitan
areas, where the predominant land cover was forested prior to urban
development. The smallest loss of sensitive species occurred in Denver,
Dallas, and Milwaukee metropolitan areas where land cover was primarily
agriculture before urban development.
"The reason for this difference was not because biological
communities in the Denver, Dallas, and Milwaukee areas are more
resilient to stressors from urban development, but because the
biological communities had already lost sensitive species to stressors
from pre-urban agricultural land use activities," said McMahon.
Although urban development creates multiple stressors, such as an
increase in concentrations of insecticides, chlorides, and nutrients,
that can degrade stream health—no single factor was universally
important in explaining the effects of urban development on stream
ecosystems. The USGS developed an innovative modeling tool to predict
how different combinations of urban-related stressors affect stream
health. This tool, initially developed for the New England area, can
provide insights on how watershed management actions to improve one or
more of these stressors may increase the likelihood of obtaining a
desired biological condition.
This study was done by the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment Program,
which conducts regional and national assessments of the nation's water
quality to provide an understanding of water-quality conditions, whether
conditions are getting better or worse over time, and how natural
features and human activities affect those conditions.
Different marine eukaryote organisms could reach up
to a number of 972.000. CSIC has participated in this international
research, conducted by 270 taxonomists from 32 countries. The current
number of marine species identified is roughly 230.000
Coral reefs in the Red Sea. Credit: Xavier Turon
Every taxonomist has calculated the number of existing species within
their specialty and estimated the number that remain to be discovered,
both through statistical models as based on the experience of each
expert. According to Enrique Macpherson, researcher at the Center for
Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC, Spain), who has participated in
the study: "Bringing together the leading taxonomists around the world
to pool their information has been the great merit of this research".
The statistical prediction is based on the rate of description
for new species in recent decades. The results show that the total
number of marine species would be about 540.000. However, this number
ranges from 320.000 to 760.000.
Meanwhile, the experts have made another estimation based on
their experience and on a projection of the number of species found in
the sampled areas. According to this prediction, the number of species
ranges from 704.000 to 972.000. According to Xabier Turon, who also
works as a researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies of Blanes
(CEAB-CSIC): "the calculations for both methods yield figures with the
same order of magnitude, which confirms that we know about one third of
the species".
All the information pooled by the experts show that just 230.00
species are correctly described. In fact, researchers found about
170.000 cases of synonymy among previously known species. That is, one
single species described under two (or more) different names.
Among the order, for instance, of cetaceans (Cetacea), researchers have
found that there are 1.271 different names applied to just 87 species.
CSIC researcher Damia Jaume, from the Mediterranean Institute for
Advanced Studies (IMEDEA, CSIC-UIB) and also involved in the study,
states: "the best known is the species, and its greater size and
commercial interest, the most common is synonymy".
Of the roughly 230.00 marine species known, about 200.000 belong
to the kingdom Animalia; 7.600 to Plantae; 19.500 to Chromista; 550 to
Protista; and 1.050 to Fungi. The research has only counted with
eukaryote organisms, i.e. those whose genetic information is enclosed in
a cell nucleus, which has left out bacteria, viruses, and archaea.
What remains to be known
The research data suggest that there are still about two-thirds
of marine species to be described, most of which would already be
inventoried. Although most of the ocean has not been sampled, Macpherson
states that "marine environments are less diverse and have very
limiting factors such as light, which homogenizes the species that
inhabit them. Thus, it is to be expected that the oceanic diversity is
less than terrestrial diversity".
Although there is no consensus yet on the number of species that inhabit
the earth's surface, this figure could be about 10 higher than the
aquatic biodiversity.
CSIC researcher thinks that "maybe in a century's time, all
marine species have been able to be described. However, the most we
know, the most we can assure the exact number of aquatic biodiversity".
At least one-third of the species that inhabit the world's oceans may
remain completely unknown to science. That's despite the fact that more
species have been described in the last decade than in any previous
one, according to a report published online on November 15 in the Cell
Press publication Current Biology that details the first
comprehensive register of marine species of the world—a massive
collaborative undertaking by hundreds of experts around the globe.
The researchers estimate that the ocean may be home to as many as
one million species in all—likely not more. About 226,000 of those
species have so far been described. There are another 65,000 species
awaiting description in specimen collections.
"For the first time, we can provide a very detailed overview of
species richness, partitioned among all major marine groups. It is the
state of the art of what we know—and perhaps do not know—about life in
the ocean," says Ward Appeltans of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commission (IOC) of UNESCO.
The findings provide a reference point for conservation efforts and
estimates of extinction rates, the researchers say. They expect that the
vast majority of unknown species—composed disproportionately of smaller
crustaceans, molluscs, worms, and sponges—will be found this century.
Earlier estimates of ocean diversity had relied on expert polls
based on extrapolations from past rates of species descriptions and
other measures. Those estimates varied widely, suffering because there
was no global catalog of marine species.
Appeltans and colleagues including Mark Costello from the University
of Auckland have now built such an inventory. The World Register of
Marine Species (WoRMS) is an open-access, online database (see
http://www.marinespecies.org/) created by 270 experts representing 146
institutions and 32 countries. It is now 95% complete and is continually
being updated as new species are discovered.
"Building this was not as simple as it should be, because there has
not been any formal way to register species," Costello says.
A particular problem is the occurrence of multiple descriptions and
names for the same species—so called "synonyms," Costello says. For
instance, each whale or dolphin has on average 14 different scientific
names.
As those synonyms are discovered through careful examination of
records and specimens, the researchers expect perhaps 40,000 "species"
to be struck from the list. But such losses will probably be made up as
DNA evidence reveals overlooked "cryptic" species.
While fewer species live in the ocean than on land, marine life
represents much older evolutionary lineages that are fundamental to our
understanding of life on Earth, Appeltans says. And, in some sense,
WoRMS is only the start.
"This database provides an example of how other biologists could
similarly collaborate to collectively produce an inventory of all life
on Earth," Appeltans says.
Reference: Appeltans et al.: "The Magnitude of Global Marine Species Diversity"
There has long been concern that concentrations of sea lice in
BC's fish farming pens spread to wild fish stock in surrounding waters.
The researchers discovered that by changing the timing of sea
lice treatments, one salmon farming region not only improved the health
of their farm Atlantic salmon - the action has helped the struggling
population of wild pink salmon to begin recovering.
The research was focused on salmon farming operations in one
specific area of the BC coast, the Broughton Archipelago, which lies
between the mainland and the northern tip of Vancouver Island. The
researchers describe the area as the historic ground zero for studying
the impacts of aquaculture on wild Pacific salmon.
Over the past decade, salmon farmers in the area have gradually
shifted the timing of anti-parasite treatments to the fall and winter
months. As a result, there have been fewer sea lice in coastal waters as
juvenile pink salmon migrate to sea in the spring.
Researchers estimate that by 2009 the mortality from sea lice for
juvenile pink salmon moving out to sea through the Broughton
Archipelago fell to less than four per cent. This mortality estimate
applies to the salmon that survive natural mortality such as predation.
During the early 2000's sea lice associated with the Broughton
salmon farms had a devastating effect, killing an estimated 90 per cent
of the migrating wild juvenile salmon that were left after natural
mortality had taken its toll.
Lead U of A researcher Stephanie Peacock says because of their
small size, juvenile pink salmon are highly susceptible to the effects
of sea lice. During a period in their life cycle, lice are free living
and are easily swept out of fish farming enclosures into the path of
migrating wild fish.
Peacock says the fall and winter anti-parasite treatments greatly
reduced louse numbers on the penned Atlantic salmon by the time wild
juvenile pink salmon passed closed to the farming sites on the annual
out migration from BC rivers to the ocean.
While changes to the parasiticide treatment schedule in the
Broughton Archipelago show positive results, Peacock emphasizes there
are still some concerns.
"The ecological effects of anti-parasite chemicals are poorly
understood and lice have developed resistance to parasite treatments in
other salmon farming regions," said Peacock.
The research was published (when) in the journal Ecological Applications,
by Peacock and supervisor Mark Lewis, in collaboration with Martin
Krkošek from the University of Otago, New Zealand, and Stan Proboszcz
and Craig Orr of Watershed Watch Salmon Society.
Over the
years, growing concern about environmental issues, including threats to
biodiversity and the loss of green space, has sparked political, social and
practical responses in Europe and the rest of
the world. The creation of European initiatives, such as the Birds Directive in
1979 and Habitats Directive in 1992, reflect the transnational dimension of
natural processes and species migrations. The Natura 2000 network of sites,
designated through the Habitats and Birds Directives, is a core element of the
EU’s green infrastructure.
Natura
2000 has a key role to play in meeting the 2020 target of halting and reversing
biodiversity loss in the EU. Now that the network has largely been established,
the focus is on effective management of the sites. This Thematic Issue examines
the key challenges and complexities of management and restoration of
biodiversity within the Natura 2000 network.
Covering
over 18% of the landmass of the EU, and an increasing part of the marine
environment, Natura 2000 encompasses both public and privately owned and
managed land and water. During its formation, governmental and non-governmental
organisations (NGOs), scientists, policymakers, politicians, practitioners and
(to varying degrees) the public, input to the process. However, as Europe moves further into the implementation phase for
Natura 2000 sites, the need for a functioning network, which positively fosters
integrated management and involvement of diverse stakeholders, in particular
the site owners, users and managers, could not be more important.
There are
significant opportunities to involve diverse groups, including NGOs, and ways
to engage local people in management of nature and protection of their natural
resources. At the same time, there is a need to develop meaningful messages to
convey the fundamental importance of interdependencies between man and nature.
This is particularly true of current discussions to define the meaning of the
concept and reality of ‘wilderness’ to support the management of protected
areas, as explored in the article, ‘What does ‘wilderness’ mean? A
European definition is needed for protected areas’.
The
article ‘First EU wide economic valuation of Natura 2000
networks’
discusses a new perspective on the socio-economic benefits of investing in the
Natura 2000 network. A preliminary figure of €223 billion is a minimum estimate
value of the many ‘ecosystem services’, such as carbon sequestration, water
quality and food provision, that Natura 2000 sites provide for society. But the
article stresses the need to agree a common methodology for calculating
economic value and suggests how this could be taken forward. Yet, attaching
economic value to nature and the services it provides can be difficult and
technically challenging as a concept, as well as highly emotive. Whereas
conservationists rightly emphasise the intrinsic value of nature, they can
neglect the socio-economic element of Natura 2000 sites, although it is often a
vital priority for local stakeholders.
There is
a need for greater community engagement, coupled with clear and unambiguous
communications in the management of Natura 2000 sites, as discussed in ‘Improved
local management needed for the Natura 2000 network’. The case study on a Belgian
national park, ‘Hoge Kempen: from coal mining landscape to oasis of
biodiversity’,
reveals how a community project has dramatically increased awareness of
biodiversity and brought significant financial rewards to the region. A better
understanding between landowners and conservationists could be achieved if the
socio-economic benefits of Natura 2000 areas were communicated – and this
argument is explored in ‘Improved communication about
Natura 2000 may help resolve landowner conflicts’.
In
addition, the need for inclusive and, wherever possible, consensus governance
in Natura 2000 sites cannot be over-stressed. This is particularly true of much
of sustainable tourism - such as the Latvian ecotourism described in ‘Ecotourism:
protecting the nature of Natura 2000 in Latvia’ and the Latvian case study, ‘Slitere National Park:
developing a tourism strategy in a Natura 2000 site’.
Species
and habitat management remain at the heart of the Natura 2000 network; yet to
be meaningful and effective, site management cannot be isolated from its
political, economic and social contexts. Integrated site management, which
utilises adaptive management approaches, is increasingly being seen as
necessary to increase the resilience of biodiversity on, around and between
designated protected areas. The understanding of how adaptive management
techniques can help to address or mitigate the impacts of climate change is
also increasing and this is examined in the case study, ‘Eurosite
– Adaptive Management of Natura 2000 sites’.
Such
subjects require further work to inform political and social choices and to
create holistic solutions where the costs of protecting nature can increasingly
be seen as an essential investment, vital for society and necessary for
biodiversity. Thus the article, ‘Protected areas act as stepping
stones for nature in the face of climate change’ considers whether conservation
strategies should be re-examined to address the lack of adequate species
representation in existing Italian reserves, including Natura 2000 sites, as
protected areas are shown to play an important role in helping species expand
their range under a changing climate. Monitoring of Natura 2000 sites is
explored in the final article, ‘New Belgian approach to
favourable conservation status for habitats and species of European interest’.
EUROPARC
and Eurosite, together with their extensive coverage of protected areas and
combined experience of site management in 36 countries, work to ensure that
practical experience is harnessed and shared between practitioners and with
policymakers. Much of the knowledge needed to strengthen the implementation of
Natura 2000 is available through the networks and this collective knowledge is
required for the new challenges faced by Europe’s protected areas. Such
challenges, including the need for increasingly sustainable development,
understanding the economics of conservation, climate change mitigation, halting
biodiversity loss and restoration of ecosystems, require new models and
governance examples. To achieve the innovation required, it is best nurtured
and encouraged when protected area networks have the opportunity to come
together, share experiences and interact to build knowledge amongst peers,
within the scientific world and policymaking arena.
What does ‘wilderness’ mean?
The challenge of defining an emerging concept in Europe
How
do we define ‘wilderness’? This is an eagerly debated question emerging from
wilderness protection in European biodiversity policy. Conservation researchers
are discussing the meaning of wilderness in reality and as a concept, to
support the management of protected areas in Europe.
Few
truly untouched areas of nature remain in Europe.
The European Parliament Resolution on Wilderness in Europe of 2009
emphasised wilderness’s significance to our heritage and highlighted its
economic, cultural and environmental benefits for society. It called for the
Natura 2000 network to offer greater protection of Europe’s remaining wild
areas and asked the European Commission to provide a definition of ‘wilderness’
that encompasses its ecosystem services and conservation value. A clear,
policy-relevant definition of what ‘wilderness’ entails can help ensure that
protection objectives are met.
Defining
‘wilderness’ is not as simple as may first appear. A recent analysis explains
that the difficulty arises because it is a ‘relative’ concept, which can vary
from person to person and is hard to define precisely and scientifically. As
habitats cross national and continental boundaries, there is also a need to
coordinate policy beyond Europe itself.
Various
policy definitions have been proposed around the world, which can act as a
starting point for a European definition. For example, the US’s Wilderness Act stipulates a minimum size
for wild areas, without human habitation or noticeable human influence, but
such areas would be hard to find in Europe.
One of the IUCN’s two definitions of a wild area, ‘Category 1b’, allows some
slight modification, with ‘little’ human habitation and suggests it should be
managed to preserve natural conditions.
A
separate study (Lupp, G., Höchtl,
F., Wende, W. (2011) “Wilderness” – A designation for Central European
landscapes? Land Use Policy. 28(3): 594-603. DOI:
10.1016/j.landusepol.2010.11.008) contributes to the development of a ‘wilderness’
definition. Researchers conducted a wilderness opinion poll among visitors to a
national park in Germany.
For the visitors, ‘wilderness’ was considered a good label for places with
natural features, few human traces, little infrastructure and few people, and
which provide a sense of ‘solitude’. The results also confirmed that
perceptions vary, with younger and more educated respondents placing more
emphasis on the absence of human intervention.
In
response to Parliament’s request for increased wilderness protection, the
Commission has contracted Eurosite, Pan Parks and Alterra to help develop
guidelines for wilderness management in Natura 2000, and the EU’s recently announced 2020 strategy to reverse biodiversity loss calls for more
protection of wilderness in forested areas.
Source: Jones-Walters, L., Civic, K. (2010) Wilderness and
biodiversity. Journal
for Nature Conservation. 18(4): 338-339. DOI:
10.1016/j.jnc.2010.06.004
First EU-wide economic
valuation of Natura 2000 network
A
new study has produced the first indicative estimate of the overall economic
benefits provided by the Natura 2000 network. It suggests that the value could
be currently between €200 and €300 billion per year, or 2% to 3% of the EU’s
Gross Domestic Product.
Alongside
biodiversity benefits, Natura 2000 provides a range of ecosystem services that
benefit society and the economy - examples include climate change mitigation
and adaptation, improvement of water quality, food provision, job creation and
livelihood, health and social cohesion. It is vital to communicate these
benefits to ensure continuing support for Natura 2000 from relevant
stakeholders; a well-communicated economic valuation could provide an
easy-to-understand method of understanding the value of Natura 2000.
The
study tests several methods of evaluating economic value. Using a site-based
method, it analysed existing data on the value of Natura 2000 sites taken from
21 studies. By calculating an average value per hectare, it scaled up the value
to an EU-level whilst adjusting for GDP of different countries (which
influences the value placed on the sites). This produced an economic value in
the range of €220 to €310 billion per year. However, this is a preliminary
estimate, based mainly on cases from 12 EU Member States, with a particular
reliance on studies from the UK
and the Netherlands.
To improve the robustness of this estimate, the report suggests that a minimum
of 200 comparable studies across different regions is needed.
The
researchers also applied an ecosystem service analysis, which identified
preliminary values for a set of seven ecosystem services. Some of these, such
as carbon storage and tourism, had relatively robust estimates. For example, it
is estimated that the total carbon stock value of all Natura 2000 habitats lies
between €607 and €1,130 billion (as at 2010), depending on which carbon price
is used in the estimation. In addition, tourism motivated by Natura 2000 sites
would provide €9 and €20 billion per year.
To
value other ecosystem services, such as natural hazard mitigation, water
provision and pollination, the study made use of illustrative case examples
complemented by experimental methods. For example, the value of mitigating
natural hazards can be based on estimates of ‘avoided costs’ – these are the
costs that could otherwise arise through incidents such as flooding damage. The
value of water purification relates to avoided need for water pre-treatment by technological
means. Given the site-specific nature of benefits for these services,
significantly more case evidence is needed before EU-wide values can be truly
estimated.
Based
on the analysis, the study highlights the usefulness of a ‘roadmap’ for the future
valuation of Natura 2000. This would include improved use of Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) and mapping, which would particularly help assess the
value of carbon storage, water supply and flood control. The study also
recommended that more valuations are conducted and, at the same time,
developing ‘value production functions’, to facilitate future analysis of the
economic values of Natura, to make research cost-effective. The study also
underlined that the economic assessment of values should be seen as
complementary information to insights on the richness and rarity of
biodiversity and its intrinsic value in Europe,
which, after all, are the reason for designating sites as Natura 2000.
Improved local management
needed for the Natura 2000 network
The
protection of some environmentally valuable Natura 2000 sites is poorly
supported at the local level, according to a study from Poland. An
analysis of Polish sites in the protected area network has suggested that there
is resistance among local communities to the network, but that this may be
because they have been misinformed about its purpose and benefits.
The
aim of the Natura 2000 network is to protect Europe’s
most important ecological sites. Protected and managed by Member States, Natura
2000 sites minimise biodiversity loss and environmental deterioration. In Poland, a fifth
of the country’s land area falls under the network, but many Polish people,
including farmers, landowners and those working in the tourist industry, view
Natura 2000 as a burden, complaining that it hinders economic growth in rural
areas. Regulations affecting development activities in Natura 2000 sites have
led to conflict and communities have argued that a lack of financial support to
protect their local sites can cause local economies to suffer.
The
study analysed social and economic development in 341 local communities in the
‘Green Lungs of Poland’ region in the north-east of the country. It aimed to
gain greater understanding about the influence of Natura 2000 on rural
communities and inform management of the network in Poland and other European
countries.
The
results show that a lack of adequate information about the network appeared to
be widespread in Poland,
particularly among small business owners who were poorly supported in dealing
with the rules and regulations. The study found that those responsible for
managing the sites often did not disseminate sufficient information about the
network and its potential benefits. Furthermore, they did not publish detailed
development plans and cooperation with local people and businesses was not
effective.
The
study suggests that properly formulated sustainable development strategies for
Natura 2000 sites should benefit communities by enhancing economic growth
through, for example, agri-tourism. However, it warns that development of a
region’s tourist industry has to be balanced by development in other economic
activities in order to secure a sustainable economic future.
Community
engagement and funds devoted specifically to the protection of Natura 2000
sites are necessary, the study concludes. The study suggests that a new
EU-level funding mechanism for managing protected areas should be introduced to
provide support for integrated environmental protection and socioeconomic
development, and recommends increased sources of finance for communities and
farmers within the network. The latter could include the prioritised action
frameworks currently being developed by Member States, where integrated funding
mechanisms would generate greater leverage for dedicated nature conservation
funds.
Source: Boltromiuk, A. (2011). The European Ecological
Network Natura 2000 as a new factor of the sustainable development of Poland’s rural
areas. Optimum
Studia Ekonomiczne. 5(53):72-83.
Natura 2000 Case Study Hoge
Kempen: from coal mining landscape to oasis of biodiversity
Once
an industrialised landscape, the Hoge Kempen National Park
in north-east Belgium
has not only increased awareness of biodiversity in the local community, but
brought financial rewards to the region. The park’s sustainable tourism and
creation of 400 new jobs are the result of an initial investment of €120
million in the project, which received some funding from the European Regional
Development Fund and Innovations and Environment Regions of Europe (Interreg).
Hidden
in a corner of north-east Belgium,
one of the most densely populated parts of Europe,
is an oasis of biodiversity. In the ‘Kempen and Maasland’ region of the Limburg
province lie nature reserves of pine forests, with heather fields, sand dunes
and lakes. The area includes several Natura 2000 sites, designated to protect
the increasingly rare heaths and grasslands that once dominated this landscape.
In
2006, through a community endeavour, these areas were absorbed into the Hoge Kempen National Park. To
the 1.1 million people living within 25km of the park, this natural treasure is
a priceless asset. Yet, underpinning the instrinsic value placed on these
habitats and species, the Hoge
Kempen National
Park was unique in its approach in setting the
economic and social needs of the area central to its vision and aim.
The
region needed investment to sustain its communities. Led by Regional Landscape
Kempen and Maasland (RLKM), working together with the Flemish Agency for Nature
and Forests (ANB) and supported by politicians and local stakeholders, they
decided to revitalise the economic potential of the region by investing in the
natural heritage of the area.
The
Hoge Kempen National Park,
including the valuable Natura 2000 sites in and around it, proves that
conservation of biodiversity can be achieved with community involvement and
that it can lead to sustainable tourism and recreation. Employment derived from
the National Park – directly and indirectly – is estimated at 400 jobs. The
direct annual economic benefits from the park are approximately €20 million.
Improved communication about
Natura 2000 may help resolve landowner conflicts
Mutual
understanding between conservation specialists and landowners would be improved
if the socio-economic benefits of Natura 2000’s protected area programme were
better communicated, recent experiences in Estonia suggest.
The
Natura 2000 network is the centrepiece of EU biodiversity policy. However,
conflicts have arisen where stakeholders have not been sufficiently involved
with setting up new sites. Despite quite extensive information campaigns and
consultation processes in Estonia,
researchers found that Natura 2000 is poorly accepted by landowners whose land
has been designated for protection.
The
researchers assessed how landowners were involved in the designation of two Natura
2000 sites - the Otepää and Kõnnumaa conservation areas in Estonia. Before
designating the sites, the Ministry of Environment, together with its regional
departments, universities and NGOs, compiled a draft list of all potential
areas for protection in Estonia
and conducted an information campaign to explain Natura 2000 to stakeholders,
particularly landowners. The campaign included a national website, posters,
leaflets, information days and some television and radio broadcasts.
This
was followed up by formal consultation processes, for which affected landowners
received a personal invitation by post to comment on the proposals. These
letters included basic information about Natura 2000. In response to
consultation feedback, the boundaries of the proposed Otepää and Kõnnumaa sites
were adjusted slightly when finally designated. Yet, despite these efforts,
when the researchers interviewed a set of the affected landowners about Natura
2000, the majority were not aware of its specific meaning, and the overall
attitude towards Natura 2000 was negative, with complaints that it was too
restrictive.
The
researchers looked deeper into the reasons behind these responses. Although
most of the landowners were aware of the information campaign, they felt that
the mass media approach was not specific enough to their own individual sites.
However, they appreciated the personalised letters that they had received.
Among
the landowners’ main concerns were the socio-economic aspects of designation,
especially potential land use restrictions subsidies and compensation payments.
However, the information campaign and consultations focused mainly on
ecological aspects, and the conservation authorities could not always provide
clear answers to questions about socio-economic issues at the consultation
meetings. The local landowners, sometimes distrusting the scientific data used
to justify designation of Natura 2000 sites, also had rich knowledge of local
biodiversity, which could have complemented the scientific inventories.
Based
on previous studies, the researchers argue that acceptance of Natura 2000 is
greater if the knowledge claims of all stakeholder groups are acknowledged as
legitimate in decision-making. The scientific focus in the Otepää and Kõnnumaa
consultations made it difficult for landowners to contribute their place-based
knowledge. A more targeted approach to communications, and a clearer
understanding of what is expected from participants in consultations, would
also benefit stakeholder engagement.
Separate
to this study, a new project has been set up which aims to communicate the
benefits of conservation to different groups of people. Funded by the EU’s
LIFE, LANDLIFE aims to communicate the value of land stewardship as
an effective and useful practical tool for nature and biodiversity conservation
to the general public, institutions, land planners and other stakeholders. Land
stewardship is the practice of managing the land, water and biodiversity
sustainably, for future generations. LANDLIFE aims to convey the value of land
stewardship among biodiversity conservation stakeholders in Europe
and to encourage its use and application.
Source: Suškevics, M., Külvik, M. (2011) The Role of Information,
Knowledge, and Acceptance During Landowner Participation in the Natura 2000
Designations: The Cases of Otepää and Kõnnumaa,
Estonia.
In: Jones, M., Stenseke, M. (Eds) (2011) The European Landscape Convention.
Landscape Series 13. Dordecht: Springer Netherlands. Ch. 14. Doi:
10.1007/978-90-481-9932-7_14.
Ecotourism: protecting the
nature of Natura 2000 in Latvia
Ecotourism
in Natura 2000 sites can help protect biodiversity in a sustainable manner, but
may potentially lead to damage if a site receives large numbers of visitors.
New research in Latvia
has provided insight into managing the impact of visitors on Natura 2000 sites,
and suggests that admission fees and environmental tourist guides could help
boost the value of ecotourism.
Ecotourism
can be defined as responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the
environment and protects the wellbeing of local people. As such, it is
considered to provide excellent opportunities to protect biodiversity and
support local communities. Latvia
has a rich biodiversity and an established tradition of nature conservation,
with 334 protected Natura 2000 sites where tourism plays a central role.
The
study suggests that current and future ecotourism activities could promote
sustainable conservation by encouraging public interest in nature, promoting
local development and generating income from visitors to help maintain
conservation projects.
However,
it is important to consider the impact of an increase of tourists to these
areas. The study interviewed a range of stakeholders across Latvia,
including national and local government, academic institutions, the private
sector, NGOs and local residents. Their responses indicated that the main cause
of unsustainable ecotourism is considered to be too many tourists. Excessive
numbers of visitors can disturb the living space of wild animals and damage
plants, habitats and water quality, as well as negatively affect local
communities.
It
is necessary to plan ecotourism carefully to consider its potential impacts on
nature, the study observes. This could involve collaborating with scientific
researchers to estimate the effects of ecotourism and including local residents
in planning. The use of green technologies, such as environmentally-friendly
sewage water treatment systems, heat pumps and solar panels, could also reduce
negative impacts, while attaching extra educational value to the sites.
The
economic potential of ecotourism remains largely unrealised in Latvia. Many
protected sites do not charge admission fees, which could provide financial
benefits and limit visitors to a manageable number. It is suggested that the
benefits of ecotourism could be maximised by employing more local environmental
tourist guides to improve the ‘tourism experience’ and communicate information
about given sites, particularly if the guides were well trained and had access
to environmental data. In addition, guides may also help to make admission fees
and accommodation taxes more acceptable.
Source: Leitis, E. (2011) The role of Ecotourism in the
Reduction of Anthropogenic Load on Natura 2000 Territories throughout Latvia. Scientific Journal of Riga Technical
University.
7:79-86. Doi:10.2478/v10145-011-0031-1.
Natura 2000 Case Study Slitere National Park: sustainable tourism in a Natura 2000 site
A former closed military zone, Slitere National Park, Latvia, is now a Natura 2000 site
which contains a significant proportion of Latvian biodiversity and is an important
cultural site. Its transformation owes much to the combined work of a local
tourism association, the community and policymakers.
The EUROPARC Federation
published the report Loving them to Death1 in 1993, which
highlighted the concerns expressed by protected area managers of the need to
sustainably manage tourism. Since then, the concept of sustainable tourism in
protected areas has become much more established. A recent EC LIFE+ project,
POLPROP NATURA2, used the park as an example of tourism development
in protected areas.
Slitere National Park covers an area of 16,360 hectares
(ha) on land and 10,130 ha in the sea. Local communities had conflicting views
of Slitere’s redesignation as a national park. Visitor management was unplanned
and there was a lack of cooperation and conflict between the park
administration and local municipalities.
The park, in close
co-operation with the Latvian Countryside Tourism Association, ‘Lauku
Celotajs’, developed a tourism development strategy, secured with participation
from local communities and policymakers. The consensual process started with an
analysis of tourism resources, facilities and products, coupled with an agreed
declaration of a shared vision of sustainable tourism. An audit of the current
natural and cultural resources was undertaken with participatory engagement in
order to research challenges and solutions. The tourism strategy and associated
action plan was agreed with the stakeholders.
The characteristics of
success in Latvia and in
sustainable tourism projects across Europe
are:
Strong partnerships between public
authorities, local business and communities, coupled with a respected and
independent third party, to guide and manage the process.
A political route to implement proposals made
through the tourism strategy into local policy or national legislation.
A clear understanding and record of the
natural and cultural resources, with positive and constructive visitor
management solutions.
Clear standards and a robust, independent
assessment system.
Natura 2000 Case Study Eurosite –
Adaptive Management of Natura 2000 sites
This
year, three leading Dutch nature conservation organisations, members of the
Eurosite network, are collaborating to implement the adaptive management
planning software system: CMSi (Conservation Management System International).
This is a significant development, which will have implications for management
planning across the majority of Natura 2000 sites in the Netherlands and
will be of interest to nature conservation managers in other countries.
Adaptation
involves taking into account the needs of people and the natural ecosystems on
which they depend. At site level, the basis for adaptive management (AM)
involves setting realistic nature conservation objectives to be achieved,
deciding and defining the appropriate nature conservation actions that are
required, prioritising risks and threats, and ensuring that monitoring is an
integral step in the AM process. The latter is essential in order to assess
results and outcomes as part of an ecosystem-based management approach.
These
steps are central to an adaptive approach and will help to create effective
responses to climate change. AM also gives increased flexibility to effectively
deal with other changes that affect site plans, including, for example, shifts
in stakeholder composition and changes in operating budgets. AM of Natura 2000
sites for climate change impacts is implicitly central to the EU’s 2020
Biodiversity Strategy.
The
EU has confirmed its targets for managing climate change’s effects on
biodiversity, aiming to halt its loss, prevent degradation of ecosystems and
restore them as far as possible, by 2020. A comprehensive EU
Adaptation Strategy for climate change and resource efficiency should be in
place by 2013, which is integral to the EU 2020 strategy - covering
agriculture, environment and sustainable development.
In
addition, one of the core pillars of the EU’s Blueprint to Safeguard European
Waters, anticipated to be launched in November 2012, is to recognise climate
change vulnerability and the need for adaptation. This is likely to have
implications, especially for management of Natura 2000 wetlands, but also
surrounding areas.
Protected areas act as stepping stones for nature in the face of climate
change
The
advantages of protected areas for biodiversity in the face of climate change
are highlighted by a recent UK
study. The research reveals that seven butterfly and bird species are highly
dependent on specific habitats and conditions found in protected areas. The
findings demonstrate the important role for protected areas in helping species
expand their range under a changing climate.
The
benefits of protected areas for biodiversity under climate change have been
questioned, as they are stationary and the movement of species is fluid.
However, new EU guidelines on climate change and the protected area network
Natura 20001 emphasise the importance of a well-managed Natura 2000 network
in helping species and habitats protected by the programme, as well as society,
adapt to the effects of climate change2.
An
estimated 84% of species have shifted their ranges northwards in Britain since
the 1960s in response to warming conditions. The researchers analysed detailed
surveys of seven butterfly and bird species’ distribution over this time and
found that 40% of newly colonised areas across the country since the 1970s have
been within protected areas. A very small area of land is thus hosting a
disproportionately high percentage of new colonisations for these seven
species.
Further
analysis of less-detailed, but sufficiently robust, records for an additional
256 invertebrate species supported these findings, showing that 98% of species have
disproportionately colonised protected areas in new parts of their ranges.
These
findings suggest that protected areas are helping species expand their range in
response to climate change, and other drivers of distribution change, as they
often provide the specific conditions needed for colonisation. Although
colonising species favour protected areas in general, different species will
vary in their level of dependence on protected areas. This reflects differences
in their reliance on particular habitats and other conditions that are
available only in protected areas.
However,
existing protected area networks may differ significantly in their capacity to
accommodate different species groups under climate change. In a separate
Italian study3, scientists called for new protected areas in Italy to be
created in an effort to guarantee long-term amphibian conservation.
Italy
provides a refuge to a diverse range of amphibians, and existing protected
areas here include nationally designated areas and Natura 2000 sites. There is
concern, however, that the current reserve network is insufficient: some
amphibian species are likely to become locally extinct in future as habitat
condition may decline under the effects of climate change.
The
researchers modelled the likely impacts of climate change on the migration
patterns of amphibians in Italy.
This allowed them to identify gaps in the existing network of protected areas
and reveal potential levels of future extinction. Suitable habitat for
amphibians is predicted to decline by 70% or more for almost all
amphibian species in Italy
over the next few decades. This is partly because suitable habitats are
currently highly fragmented, which restricts species’ mobility. For long-term
conservation, amphibians will need access to other areas that are unsuitable
under the current climate, but which are likely to become habitable in the
future.
The Italian study argues
that conservation strategies should be re-examined to address the lack of
adequate species representation in existing reserves, including Natura 2000
sites, and to account for the anticipated risk of population decline.
Source: Thomas, C., Gillingham,
K., Bradbury R.B., et al (2012). Protected areas facilitate species’
range expansions. Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences. 109 (2012): 14063-14068. Doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210251109
New Belgian approach to favourable conservation
status for habitats and species of European interest
Deciding whether local conservation objectives set
in Natura 2000 sites collectively meet the favourable conservation status of
habitats and species at the national and regional level in EU Member States is
not straightforward. Research suggests this gap can be bridged by first setting
regional conservation objectives, which are then used to prioritise local
conservation objectives.
All Member States must, according to the Habitats
Directive, ensure that listed habitats and species of European interest achieve
a ‘favourable conservation status’, by undertaking certain measures to meet
conservation objectives of habitats and species. This status must be achieved
at a national or regional level, but it can be difficult to establish whether
the combined, local objectives meet the requirements for favourable
conservation status at the regional level.
A framework to
determine regional conservation objectives for habitats and species in a Member State
is presented by the study. It compares current regional conservation status
with the favourable conservation status (or reference state) in order to identify
regional conservation objectives. These, in turn, can be used to prioritise
conservation objectives at the local habitat level.
The framework
has been used in the northern region of Belgium,
Flanders, to develop regional conservation
objectives for 46 habitats, 49 species (other than birds) and 55 species of
birds. An assessment of the current regional conservation status of the entire
region found that only 7% of habitats achieved a favourable conservation
status. Only 15% and 55%, respectively, of species other than birds, and 51% of
birds listed in Annexe 1 of the Birds Directive reached favourable conservation
status.
Based on the
current situation, the regional conservation objectives were decided, including
substantial increases in the area of habitats (on average by 42%). In addition,
active measures (increasing the range and/or an expansion of populations) to
conserve 78% of the species are required.
Since 2007,
Member States have been required to set up a monitoring scheme, according to
Art.11 of the Habitats Directive, to evaluate and report any changes in the
conservation status of habitats and species, every six years. A separate study1
discusses the merits of including remote sensing in the evaluation of Natura
2000 habitats. It suggests that remote sensing is particularly suited to
producing habitat distribution maps and detecting changes over wide areas, but
at the moment, the technology is not widely used to monitor Natura 2000 sites.
Member
States are currently able to determine their own monitoring methods. Remote
sensing could provide conservation monitors with a powerful tool to meet the
increased need for information about Natura 2000 sites, but the authors of the
remote sensing study state that, ideally, monitoring approaches should to be
standardised across the EU and readily available technology should be used to
develop useful remote sensing products for immediate use. Furthermore, greater
dialogue is needed between remote sensing developers and monitors.
Source: Louette,G.,
Adriaens, D., Adriaens, P. et al. (2011) Bridging the gap between the Natura 2000 regional
conservation status and local conservation objectives. Journal for Nature
Conservation. 19: 224-235. Doi:10.1016/j.jnc.2011.02.001.
The LIFE programme has contributed significantly to
the implementation and management of the Natura 2000 network in Europe. More than 1200 projects have been funded since
the launch of the programme in 1992, targeting more than 2500 Natura 2000 sites
around the EU – around 5.5% of the network.
Stanford risk expert recommends engineering principles to assess catastrophic risk
Hurricane (Tropical Storm) Sandy. Credit: NASA
The terms "black swan" and "perfect storm" have become part of
public vocabulary for describing disasters ranging from the 2008
meltdown in the financial sector to the terrorist attacks of September
11. But according to Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, a Stanford professor of
management science and engineering, people in government and industry
are using these terms too liberally in the aftermath of a disaster as an
excuse for poor planning.
Her research, published in the November issue of the journal Risk Analysis,
suggests that other fields could borrow risk analysis strategies from
engineering to make better management decisions, even in the case of
once-in-a-blue-moon events where statistics are scant, unreliable or
non-existent.
Paté-Cornell argues that a true "black swan" – an event that is
impossible to imagine because we've known nothing like it in the past –
is extremely rare. The AIDS virus is one of very few examples. But
usually, there are important clues and warning signs of emerging hazards
(e.g., a new flu virus) that can be monitored to guide quick risk
management responses.
Similarly, she argues that the risk of a "perfect storm," in which
multiple forces join to create a disaster greater than the sum of its
parts, can be assessed in a systematic way before the event because even
though their conjunctions are rare, the events that compose them – and
all their dependences – have been observed in the past.
"Risk analysis is not about predicting anything before it happens,
it's just giving the probability of various scenarios," she said. She
argues that systematically exploring those scenarios can help companies
and regulators make smarter decisions before an event in the face of
uncertainty.
THINK LIKE AN ENGINEER
An engineering risk analyst thinks in terms of systems, their
functional components and their dependencies, Paté-Cornell said. For
instance, in many power plants that require cooling, generators,
turbines, water pumps, safety valves and more, all contribute to making
the system work. Therefore, the analyst must first understand the ways
in which the system works as a whole to identify how it could fail. The
same method applies to medical systems, financial or ecological systems.
Paté-Cornell stresses the importance of accounting for dependent
events whose probabilities are intertwined, to create a complete list of
scenarios – including the dependencies – that must be accounted for in
the risk analysis. It is, therefore, essential that engineering risk
analysis include external factors that can affect the whole system,
Paté-Cornell said.
In the case of a nuclear plant, the seismic activity or the
potential for tsunamis in the area must be part of the equation,
particularly if local earthquakes have historically led to tidal waves
and destructive flooding. Paté-Cornell explained that the designers of
the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant ignored important historical
precedents, including two earthquakes in 869 and 1611 that generated
waves similar to those witnessed in March of 2011.
What some described as a "perfect storm" of compounding mishaps
Paté-Cornell sees as failure to assess basic failure probabilities based
on experience and elementary logic.
A VERSATILE FRAMEWORK
Engineering risk analyses can get complex, but their components are
concrete objects whose mechanisms are usually well understood.
Paté-Cornell says that this systematic approach is relevant to human
aspects of risk analysis.
"Some argue that in engineering you have hard data about hard
systems and hard architectures, but as soon as you involve human beings,
you cannot apply the same methods due to the uncertainties of human
error. I do not believe this is true," she said.
In fact, Paté-Cornell and her colleagues have long incorporated
"soft" elements into their systems analysis to calculate the probability
of human error. They look at all the people with access to the system,
and factor in any available information about past behaviors, training
and skills. Paté-Cornell has found that human errors, far from being
unpredictable, are often rooted in the way an organization is managed.
"We look at how the management has trained, informed, and given
incentives to people to do what they do and assign risk based on those
assessments," she said.
Paté-Cornell has successfully applied this approach to the field of
finance, estimating the probability that an insurance company would fail
given its age and its size. She said the companies contacted her and
funded the research because they needed forward-looking models that
their financial analysts generally did not provide.
Traditional financial analysis, she said, is based on evaluating
existing statistical data about past events. In her view, analysts can
better anticipate market failures - like the financial crisis that began
in 2008 - by recognizing precursors and warning signs, and factoring
them into a systemic probabilistic analysis.
Medical specialists must also make decisions in the face of limited
statistical data, and Paté-Cornell says the same approach is useful for
calculating patient risk. She used systems analysis to assess data about
anesthesia accidents – a case in which human mistakes can create an
accident chain that, if not recognized quickly, puts the patient's life
in danger. Based on her result, she suggested retraining and
recertification procedures for anesthesiologists to make their system
safer.
Professor Paté-Cornell believes that the financial and medical
sectors are just two of many fields that might benefit from systems
analysis in uncertain, dynamic situations. "Lots of people don't like
probability because they don't understand it," she said, "and they think
if they don't have hard statistics, they cannot do a risk analysis. In
fact, we generally do a system-based risk analysis because we do not
have reliable statistics about the performance of the whole system."
She hopes that her probabilistic approach can replace the notions of
black swans and perfect storms, making the public safer and better
informed about risks. Apparently, others have this same hope.
"It must have struck a chord," she said, "because I already get lots
of comments, responses and ideas on the subject from people around the
world."
This article was written by Kelly Servick, a science-writing intern at the Stanford University School of Engineering.
