New data indicate rapid temperature rise in the coldest region of mainland Europe
Moscow/Stuttgart/ Halle(Saale). Parts of the Arctic have cooled
clearly over the past century, but temperatures have been rising steeply
since 1990 also there. This is the finding of a summer temperature
reconstruction for the past 400 years produced on the base of tree rings
from regions beyond the Arctic Circle. German and Russian researchers
analysed tree growth using ring width of pine from Russia's Kola
Peninsula and compared their findings with similar studies from other
parts of the Arctic. For the past 400 years since AD 1600, the
reconstructed summer temperature on Kola in the months of July and
August has varied between 10.4°C (1709) and 14.7°C (1957), with a mean
of 12.2°C. Afterwards, after a cooling phase, a ongoing warming can be
observed from 1990 onwards. Researchers from the Institute of Geography
in Moscow, Hohenheim University and the Helmholtz Centre for
Environmental Research (UFZ) report in journal Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research:
"The data indicate that solar activity may have been one of the major
driving factors of summer temperatures, but this has been overlaid by
other factors since 1990".
The researchers used for this study wood samples from a total of 69 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris)
from the Khibiny Mountains on the Kola Peninsula, situated between the
Arctic Circle and the ocean port of Murmansk, not far from the Finnish
border. The investigated region is a transition zone between
Scandinavia, which is strongly affected by the gulf stream resp. North
Atlantic Current, and the continental regions Eurasia. This makes the
region particularly interesting for climatological studies.
Kola has a cold-temperate climate with long, moderately cold
winters and cool, humid summers. In this part of the Arctic, the mean
temperature fluctuates between -12°C in January and +13°C in July, with a
growing season of just 60 to 80 days. The northern taiga vegetation is
dominated by spruce, pine and birch. The samples came from three
locations in the Khibiny Mountains close to recent altitudinal
timberline at altitudes of between 250 and 450 m above sea level. The
geographical northern timberline lies approximately 100 km further
north. In earlier studies, researchers led by Tatjana Böttger from the
UFZ were able to show that pine forests on the Kola Peninsula expanded
between 7000 and 3500 years ago to about 50 km north of their
present-day limit. However, for this study, they used trees from the
altitudinal timberline, since they respond very sensitively to
temperature fluctuations and provide particularly useful information, as
demonstrated by US researchers in November 2009 in the journal PNAS
when they used a long-lived species of pine in California and Nevada to
show that these trees had grown particularly fast over the last 50 of
the past 3500 years because of higher temperatures.
In the Tree-Ring-Laboratory at the University of Hohenheim in
Stuttgart the German researchers measured the width of the individual
tree rings. The calibration of these data with the help of
meteorological records for the last 127 years and the interpretation of
results occurred together with Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and
the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Halle. "Besides of
temperature, growth is also strongly influenced by non-climatic factors
like light, nutrients, water supply and competition from other trees. So
it is vital to isolate these trends to obtain a climate signal as pure
as possible," explains Yury M. Kononov from the Russian Academy of
Sciences in Moscow.
Following the summer temperature reconstruction on the Kola
Peninsula, the researchers compared their results with similar tree-ring
studies from Swedish Lapland and from the Yamal and Taimyr Peninsulas
in Russian Siberia, which had been published in Holocene in 2002. The
reconstructed summer temperatures of the last four centuries from
Lapland and the Kola and Taimyr Peninsulas are similar in that all three
data series display a temperature peak in the middle of the twentieth
century, followed by a cooling of one or two degrees. Only the data
series from the Yamal Peninsula differed, reaching its peak later,
around 1990. What stands out in the data from the Kola Peninsula is that
the highest temperatures were found in the period around 1935 and 1955,
and that by 1990 the curve had fallen to the 1870 level, which
corresponds to the start of the Industrial Age. Since 1990, however,
temperatures have increased again evidently. What is conspicuous about
the new data is that the reconstructed minimum temperatures coincide
exactly with times of low solar activity. The researchers therefore
assume that in the past, solar activity was a significant factor
contributing to summer temperature fluctuations in the Arctic. However,
this correlation is only visible until 1970, after which time other –
possibly regional – factors gain the upper hand. "One thing is certain:
this part of the Arctic warmed up after the end of the Little Ice Age
around 250 years ago, cooled down from the middle of the last century
and has been warming up again since 1990," says Dr Tatjana Böttger, a
paleoclimatologist at the UFZ.
In September 2009, another international team presented model
calculations showing that the Arctic had gradually cooled down by around
0.2 °C per thousand years over the last two millennia to the start of
the Industrial Age. They attributed this to a gradual decline in solar
radiation in the summer. However, the last decade was the warmest of the
Common Era and was 1.4 °C above the forecasts, report Darrell S.
Kaufman and his colleagues in Science. The new data produced by Kononov,
Friedrich and Böttger support the thesis that solar activity seems to
be a significant factor influencing summer temperatures in the Arctic,
but that its influence has weakened considerably over the past few
decades.
Publication:
Yu. M. Kononov, M. Friedrich and T. Boettger (2009): Regional
Summer Temperature Reconstruction in the Khibiny Low Mountains (Kola
Peninsula, NW Russia) by Means of Tree-ring Width during the Last Four
Centuries
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 41, No. 4, 2009, pp. 460�
http://instaar.colorado.edu/aaar/browse_abstracts/index.php
DOI: 10.1657/1938-4246-41.4.460
More information available from:
Dr Tatjana Böttger (DE+RU+EN)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)
Tel: +49 345 558 5227
Dr Yury M. Kononov (RU+EN)
Russian Academy of Sciences
Tel: +49 345 558 5405
http://igras.ru/
Michael Friedrich (Dipl. agr. biol.) (DE+EN)
University of Hohenheim
Tel: +49 711 459 22196 or 22188
https://www.uni-hohenheim.de/1597.html?typo3state=persons&lsfid=1381
and
Dr Stephan Weise (DE+EN)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)
Tel: +49 345 558 5435
http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=4371
or from
Tilo Arnhold (UFZ press office)
Telephone: +49 341 235 1635
Email: [email protected]
Related links:
Comparing climatic trends across space and through time (UFZ Magazine 12, 2006)
Paleoclimate research at the UFZ
http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=17015
http://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=1699
Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scots_Pine
References:
Matthew W. Salzer, Malcolm K. Hughes, Andrew G. Bunn, and Kurt F.
Kipfmueller (2009): Recent unprecedented tree-ring growth in
bristlecone pine at the highest elevations and possible causes. PNAS
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/11/13/0903029106.full.pdf+html
Kaufman, Darrell S. et al. (2009): Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. Science 325, 1236
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/325/5945/1236
Boettger, T., Hiller, A., and Kremenetski, C. (2003):
Mid-Holocene warming in north-west Kola Peninsula, Russia: northern pine
limit movement and stable isotope evidence. Holocene, 13: 405�.
http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/13/3/403
Grudd, H., Briffa, K. R., Karlén, W., Bartholin, T.S., Jones,
P.D. and Kromer, B., 2002: A 7400-year tree chronology in northern
Swedish Lapland: natural climatic variability expressed on annual to
millennial timescales. Holocene, 12: 657-666.
http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/12/6/657
Hantemirov, R. M., and Shiyatov, S. G., 2002: A continuous
multimillennial ring-width chronology in Yamal, northwestern Siberia. Holocene, 12: 717�.
http://www.nosams.whoi.edu/PDFs/papers/Holocene_v12a.pdf
Naurzbaev, M. M., Vaganov, E. A., Sidorova, O. V., and
Schweingruber, F. H., 2002: Summer temperatures in eastern Taimyr
inferred from a 2427-year late-Holocene tree-ring chronology and earlier
floating series. Holocene, 12: 727�.
http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/12/6/727
Contact: Tilo Arnhold
[email protected]
49-341-235-1635
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres