The German research vessel, Polarstern, is shown off the Rothera station
on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Rothera is one of eight
stations that provided temperature data for this research. Credit: Hannes Grobe/Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
The eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula, a finger of the southern
polar continent that juts toward South America, has experienced summer
warming of perhaps a half-degree per decade – a greater rate than
possibly anywhere else on Earth – in the last 50 years, and that warming
is largely attributed to human causes.
But new University of Washington research shows that the Southern
Hemisphere's fall months – March, April and May – are the only time when
there has been extensive warming over the entire peninsula, and that is
largely governed by atmospheric circulation patterns originating in the
tropics.
The autumn warming also brings a notable reduction in sea ice cover
in the Bellingshausen Sea off the peninsula's west coast, and more open
water leads to warmer temperatures on nearby land in winter and spring
(June through November), said Qinghua Ding, a UW research associate in
Earth and space sciences. In fact, the most significant warming on the
west side of the peninsula in recent decades has occurred during the
winter.
"Local northerly wind pushes warmer air from midlatitudes of the
Southern Ocean to the peninsula, and the northern wind favors warming of
the land and sea ice reduction," said Ding.
He is the lead author of a paper explaining the findings, published online this month in the Journal of Climate. Eric Steig, a UW professor of Earth and space sciences, is co-author. The work was funded by the National Science Foundation.
The scientists analyzed temperature data gathered from 1979 through
2009 at eight stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. The stations were
selected because each has reliable monthly data for at least 95 percent
of the study period. They also used two different sets of data, one from
Europe and the other from NASA, that combine surface observations,
satellite temperature data and modeling.
The Antarctic Peninsula (in box) extends northward from the main part of the continent toward South America. Credit: CIA World Factbook
The researchers concluded that the nonsummer Antarctic Peninsula
warming is being driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation
originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There, the warm sea surface
generates an atmospheric phenomenon called a Rossby wave train, which
reaches the Antarctic Peninsula and alters the local circulation to warm
the region.
The sea-surface temperature trend in the tropical Pacific is
related to natural phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(El Niño and La Niña) and cycles that occur on longer timescales,
sometimes decades. But it is not clear whether human causes play a role
in that trend.
"We still lack a very clear understanding of the tropical natural variability, of what that dynamic is," Ding said.
He said that in the next two or three decades it is quite possible
that natural variability and forcing from human factors will play
equivalent roles in temperature changes on the Antarctic Peninsula, but
after that the forcing from human causes will likely play a larger role.
"If these trends continue, we will continue to see warming in the peninsular region, there is no doubt," Ding said.
Reference: Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific Qinghua Ding and Eric J. Steig.Journal of Climate
2013
; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00729.1
A new study finds a decline in snow and ice on Mount Everest (second
peak from left) and nearby mountains. Credit: Pavel Novak
Researchers taking a new look at the snow
and ice covering Mount Everest and the national park that
surrounds it are finding abundant evidence that the world's tallest
peak is shedding its frozen cloak. The scientists have also been
studying temperature and precipitation trends in the area and
found that the Everest region has been warming while snowfall
has been declining since the early 1990s.
Members of the team conducting these studies will present their
findings on May 14 at the Meeting of the Americas in Cancun,
Mexico - a scientific conference organized and co-sponsored by
the American Geophysical Union.
Glaciers in the Mount Everest region have shrunk by 13 percent
in the last 50 years and the snowline has shifted upward by 180
meters (590 feet), according to Sudeep Thakuri, who is leading
the research as part of his PhD graduate studies at the University
of Milan in Italy.
Glaciers smaller than one square kilometer are
disappearing the fastest and have experienced a 43 percent
decrease in surface area since the 1960s. Because the glaciers are
melting faster than they are replenished by ice and snow, they are
revealing rocks and debris that were previously hidden deep
under the ice. These debris-covered sections of the glaciers have
increased by about 17 percent since the 1960s, according to
Thakuri. The ends of the glaciers have also retreated by an
average of 400 meters since 1962, his team found.
The researchers suspect that the decline of snow and ice in the
Everest region is from human-generated greenhouse gases
altering global climate. However, they have not yet established a
firm connection between the mountains' changes and climate
change, Thakuri said.
He and his team determined the extent of glacial change on
Everest and the surrounding 1,148 square kilometer (713 square
mile) Sagarmatha National Park by compiling satellite imagery
and topographic maps and reconstructing the glacial history.
Their statistical analysis shows that the majority of the glaciers in
the national park are retreating at an increasing rate, Thakuri
said.
To evaluate the temperature and precipitation patterns in the
area, Thakuri and his colleagues have been analyzing hydro-
meteorological data from the Nepal Climate Observatory stations
and Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. The
researchers found that the Everest region has undergone a 0.6
degree Celsius (1.08 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in temperature
and 100 millimeter (3.9 inches) decrease in precipitation during
the pre-monsoon and winter months since 1992.
In subsequent research, Thakuri plans on exploring the climate-
glacier relationship further with the aim of integrating the
glaciological, hydrological and climatic data to understand the
behavior of the hydrological cycle and future water availability.
"The Himalayan glaciers and ice caps are considered a water
tower for Asia since they store and supply water downstream
during the dry season," said Thakuri. "Downstream populations
are dependent on the melt water for agriculture, drinking, and
power production."
"What if we could preserve wild spaces simply by protecting one family of animals?"
This film is for teachers, scientists, non-profits and people
interested in bears and preserving wild spaces. This film was made
possible by an anonymous donation and was produced in partnership with
Wildlife Media.
What's good for bears is good for people and the planet.
A black vulture (Aegypius monachus) has been spotted in the Eastern Balkan Mountains for the first time for more than 30 years.
A photo-trap set up at the vulture supplementary feeding site in the
area of the Sinite Kamani Nature Park captured a young black vulture in
April, together with a group of foraging griffons. The pictured bird
was released as part of the LIFE project, 'Vultures Return in Bulgaria'.
The vulture probably originated from Serbia and was
recorded along with several wild, non-tagged young and sub-adult
griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus).
Black vulture was once widely distributed across the
country, mostly in the plain areas but also in hilly areas and the
broad-leaved forest belt – namely, the Dobrudzha, Ludogorie, Shumen and
Provadija plateaus, the Danube plain, the slopes of Sakar, Vitosha,
the mountains surrounding Sofia, the Rhodopes and south-eastern
Bulgaria.
However, the use of poison, traps and poachers led to the
complete extinction of the black vulcan as a nesting species. The last
confirmed nest of the species was found by the Green Balkans team in
the area of the Studen Kladenets Reservoir in 1997 and since then no
nesting has been confirmed.
But the country is often visited by black vultures, which
still nest in the Dadia Reserve in northern Greece and cross the
border in search of food. They often use the supplementary feeding
sites that have been maintained by Green Balkans and the BSPB for the
past 25 years.
The siting of the black vulture at the supplementary
feeding site represents a huge success for the project. Griffon vulture
is an indicator species, which it is hoped confirms the improved
conditions of the Balkan Mountains.
This year’s European Day of Parks has the motto "My Park. My Passion. My Story."
Inaugurated in 1999, the European Day of Parks is organised
by the Europarc Federation, and held on or around 24 May each year. The
aim of the event is to bring people closer to nature and to raise
public awareness about the importance of conservation and sustainable
management of protected areas.
In keeping with this year’s motto, protected areas’
employees, visitors and other stakeholders are being invited to share
their experiences of and passion for nature in some art form, such as
stories, songs, pictures, films or plays.
Activities may be held well ahead of 24 May, as well as on
the day itself, and be linked to the European Day of Parks. The
Europarc Federation has suggestions on possible activities and ways to
explore creatively people’s passion for nature on its website.
International experts recommend key focus areas for next 2 years
As leadership of the Arctic Council passes from Sweden to Canada May
15, experts say it is crucial that northern nations strengthen response
capabilities to shipping-related accidents foreseen in newly-opened
northern waters, as well as to more-common local emergencies such as
floods, forest fires and rescue situations.
And Canada needs to lead by example. Despite having the world's
longest Arctic coastline and second-largest territory in the region, its
far northern marine and aviation infrastructure badly lags by
international comparison, according to experts with the Munk-Gordon
Arctic Security Program, an initiative of the Canada Centre for Global
Security Studies at the Munk School of Global Affairs, University of
Toronto and the Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation.
Northern emergency flight rescue operations today originate from the
Royal Canadian Air Force base in the southern Ontario city of Trenton
and involve at least eight hours of flying. The Canadian Coast Guard
aims to respond to requests for icebreaking services within 10 hours.
However, weather and distance often result in response times measured in
days.
By contrast, Russia is building 10 search and rescue stations along its Northern Sea Route, expected to open in 2015.
The Arctic Council ministerial meeting this week is hosted by the
outgoing chair, Sweden, in that country's northernmost city, Kiruna.
The anticipated 300 delegates - perhaps the largest in Arctic
Council history - include noted Canadian historian John English, author
of a forthcoming book - Ice and Water: Power, Peoples and the Arctic
Council - and a senior member of the Munk-Gordon Arctic Security Program
team. Says Dr. English: "Chairing the Arctic Council represents a real
opportunity for Canada to show leadership in a region whose importance
to global affairs is rapidly increasing."
In Kiruna, specific initiatives and goals of the Canadian
chairmanship will be articulated. Minister Leona Aglukkaq has detailed
Canada's main priorities in the chair as "development for the people of
the North," supporting this with sub-themes of sustainable Arctic
communities, responsible resource extraction, and safe Arctic shipping.
"Underpinning all of the Arctic Council's work must be a commitment
to the full involvement of Permanent Participants from indigenous
communities," says Thomas Axworthy, President and CEO of the Walter and
Duncan Gordon Foundation. "In that regard, as it moves forward on its
priority of safe shipping, Canada should heed the voices of those living
in the north who know first-hand the realities of Arctic emergency
response."
In a May 2012 report, the Munk-Gordon Arctic Security Program said:
"A proudly northern nation, Canada is the second largest Arctic state.
Half of the country's land mass lies in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. It
has a 162,000-km Arctic coast line, but is the only Arctic nation
without a deep water port."
The report recommended Canada "make the necessary strategic
investments in Canadian Arctic air and marine infrastructure to enable
Canada to effectively implement the Arctic Council negotiated accord on
search and rescue" and be prepared to fulfil its international agreement
obligations.
The "Agreement on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue"
negotiated under Arctic Council auspices and signed in 2011, clearly
defines the territory for which a nation is the primary responder, with
responses augmented as required by other Arctic states.
This Open Canada info-graphic details one of 14 search and rescue
operations executed in Northern Canada since 2010. To view all 14 and
more information visit this page.
Local community members are often the frontline of response to
emergencies in remote Arctic communities, says Sara French, Director of
the Munk-Gordon Arctic Security Program which, early next year, will
host a major meeting on northern security issues, partnering with
several international organizations sharing common concerns.
A 2010 survey
conducted for the Program showed about 90 per cent of northern
respondents deemed of top importance (a four or five out of five)
national capacity to respond to disasters, such as major northern oil
spills, emergency search and rescue teams and equipment, and basic
public infrastructure.
When asked if Canada is well equipped to respond to emergencies,
including search and rescue teams and equipment, only 40 per cent of
northerners agreed. Just 11 per cent thought there was sufficient
capacity to respond to disasters, such as a major spill. Investing in
infrastructure was virtually tied with better healthcare as an
investment priority among Canadians in the Far North (65 per cent vs. 66
per cent respectively).
As stated in the Program report Canada as an Arctic Power:"For
northern Canadians, fatal aircraft accidents in Resolute and
Yellowknife, and the deadly fire on-board a Norwegian cruise ship - all
in the fall of 2011- further highlighted the need to develop effective
emergency management systems in the Arctic that are matched by adequate
assets to carry them out."
An Institute of the North survey in Alaska found similar thoughts
about Northern priorities among residents of that state, with "capacity
to respond to disasters, such as major oil spills" in first place;
"capacity to respond to emergencies, including search and rescue teams
and equipment" in third place; and "basic infrastructure, like roads,
hospitals, libraries, schools and water treatment facilities" in fourth.
It is not yet known how many, if any, new non-Arctic countries will
be accorded Arctic Council observer status. Their role in shaping Arctic
governance is already being felt at the International Maritime
Organization, however, which is negotiating a voluntary Polar Code for
Arctic shipping. At the talks, Canada articulated a strong stance on
pollution-related issues.
Propose a new funding mechanism to enable Permanent Participants to
fully participate in all of the working groups of the Arctic Council.
Support the Permanent Participants in co-operation with the Arctic
Council member states to jointly review the role of the Indigenous
Peoples Secretariat (IPS) following the creation of the Permanent
Secretariat of the Arctic Council in Tromsø, Norway.
Make the necessary strategic investments in Canadian Arctic air and
marine infrastructure to enable Canada to effectively implement the
Arctic Council negotiated accord on search and rescue.
Encourage the Arctic Council to recognize the special role for
regional, state, and territorial governments in Arctic governance and
particularly in the Arctic Council.
Encourage the Arctic Council Secretariat to create plain-language
summaries of its studies and activities so that the information is
accessible to interested citizens.
Propose that any candidate for Arctic Council Observer status must
publicly declare its respect for the sovereignty of Arctic states and
the rights of Arctic indigenous peoples.
Fund the Canadian Polar Commission to a level equivalent to counterpart institutions in other Arctic states.
The Munk-Gordon Arctic Security Program: A partnership between the Canada Centre for Global Security Studies
at the Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto and the
Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation, the Munk-Gordon Arctic Security
Program is dedicated to studying and promoting four overarching areas of
concern: public opinion research, Arctic Council, Arctic Peoples and
Security, and emergency management. Program details, publications and
opinion polls can be accessed at this website.
Bird
migration is so extraordinary that there seems something almost supernatural
about it: the more we find out about the feats of navigation and endurance
performed by migratory birds, the more amazing they seem. Tiny hummingbirds
whirring across the Gulf of Mexico, Bar-tailed Godwits covering eleven thousand
kilometres in non-stop flight, soaring birds spiralling in their tens of
thousands over land-bridges, songbirds dropping down to hidden desert oases
just in time… the abilities of migratory birds are awe-inspiring.
Coming
down to earth, however, the threats that migrants face are all too real – and
very often migrant birds are under huge pressure at the exact points where they
are most vulnerable. Birds battling to reach the sea-shore descend into a
limitless line of nets. Tiny falcons funnel through forests to be trapped in
their thousands. Exhausted shorebirds find that the mudflats where they once
refuelled are now a sea of concrete, or circle wearily because their roosting
sites have vanished. These are just some examples that have caught attention in
the last few months – indicative of the increasing challenges that migrants now
face on their journeys all over the world.
The theme
of this year’s World Migratory Bird Day, networking for migratory birds,
resonates particularly strongly for BirdLife. BirdLife itself is a network, of
people and Partner organisations connected up and down all the globe’s flyways
– taking action together for conservation. And BirdLife has devoted much
effort, through the Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas Programme, to
identifying, mapping, monitoring and safeguarding the networks of sites most
important for migratory birds.
However,
as the examples above show, networks are only as strong as their weakest links.
Migratory birds use sites and habitats along the length of their flyways: they
need looking after along the length of their flyways too. BirdLife’s Migratory
Birds and Flyways Programme, one of nine key conservation programmes in the new
BirdLife strategy, brings together the actions of BirdLife Partners at a
flyways scale. Within the programme, Partners are working with national governments
and others through focused projects, such as the Migratory Soaring Birds
Project, working to integrate bird conservation within key economic sectors
along the Great Rift Valley flyway; or Living on the Edge, working to address
threats to migrant songbirds in the Sahel.
On 11-12
May, members and supporters of BirdLife Partners around the world will once
again be out raising awareness and taking action for the world’s amazing and
inspiring migratory birds. Thanks to all involved in co-ordinating this year’s
event, and especially to CMS and AEWA – and come and join the celebrations!
A revolution is taking place in how businesses and governments account for natural capital.
Against a backdrop of increasing international interest in how we value
the economic benefits we derive from our natural environment, business
leaders, policy makers and sustainability leaders from around the world
will come together in Edinburgh in November for the inaugural World
Forum on Natural Capital.
Since the United Nations Earth Summit in Rio last June, there has been a
groundswell of private sector interest in the concept of natural
capital accounting. As the first major global conference devoted to
turning the emerging debate into action, the World Forum on Natural
Capital aims to widen understanding of the implications for businesses
and the risks of ignoring ‘invisible’ assets.
Hurricane Flossie is approaching the Big Island of Hawaii in August 2007. Credit: NASA
News of a hurricane threat sends our hearts racing, glues us to the
Internet for updates, and makes us rush to the store to stock up on
staples. Hawaii, fortunately, has been largely free from these violent
storms in the recent past, only two having made landfall in more than 30
years.
Now a study headed by a team of scientists at the International
Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, shows that
Hawaii could see a two-to-three-fold increase in tropical cyclones by
the last quarter of this century. The study, which appears in the May 5,
2013, online issue of Nature Climate Change, though, leaves open the question, how worried Island residents should get.
"Computer models run with global warming scenarios generally project
a decrease in tropical cyclones worldwide. This, though, may not be
what will happen with local communities," says lead author Hiroyuki
Murakami.
To determine whether tropical cyclones will become more frequent in
Hawaii with climate change, Murakami and climate expert Bin Wang at the
Meteorology Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa, joined forces
with Akio Kitoh at the Meteorological Research Institute and the
University of Tsukuba in Japan. The scientists compared in a
state-of-the-art, high-resolution global climate model the recent
history of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific with a future
(2075–2099) scenario, under which greenhouse gas emissions continue to
rise, resulting in temperatures about 2°C higher than today.
This image shows the projected change in number of tropical cyclones per
year by the last quarter of this century. The green stippling indicates
statistical significance at the 99 percent confidence level. Credit: Hiroyuki Murakami, Nature Climate Change
"In our study, we looked at all tropical cyclones, which range in
intensity from tropical storms to full-blown category 5 hurricanes. From
1979 to 2003, both observational records and our model document that
only every four years on average did a tropical cyclone come near
Hawaii. Our projections for the end of this century show a
two-to-three-fold increase for this region," explains Murakami.
The main factors responsible for the increase are changes in the
large-scale moisture conditions, the flow patterns in the wind, and in
surface temperature patterns stemming from global warming.
Most hurricanes that might threaten Hawaii now are born in the
eastern Pacific, south of the Baja California Peninsula. From June
through November the ingredients there are just right for tropical
cyclone formation, with warm ocean temperatures, lots of moisture, and
weak vertical wind shear. But during the storms' long journey across the
3000 miles to Hawaii, they usually fizzle out due to dry conditions
over the subtropical central Pacific and the wind shear from the
westerly subtropical jet.
Surprisingly, even though fewer tropical cyclones will form in the
eastern Pacific in Murakami's future scenario, we can expect more of
them to make their way to Hawaii.
The upper-level westerly subtropical jet will move poleward so that
the mean steering flow becomes easterly. Thus, storms from Baja
California are much more likely to make it to Hawaii. Furthermore, since
the climate models also project that the equatorial central Pacific
will heat up, conditions may become more favorable for hurricane
formation in the open ocean to the south or southeast of Hawaii.
"Our finding that more tropical cyclones will approach Hawaii as
Earth continues to warm is fairly robust because we ran our experiments
with different model versions and under varying conditions. The yearly
number we project, however, still remains very low," reassures study
co-author Wang.
Citation: Hiroyuki Murakami, Bin Wang, Tim Li, and Akio Kitoh: Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii. Nature Climate Change, May 5, 2013, doi:10.1038/nclimate1890
The risk of marine bio-invasion caused by global shipping around the
world. The brighter colour and thicker line indicates a higher
bio-invasion risk.
Image by Dr Michael Gastner
Globalisation, with its ever increasing demand for cargo transport,
has inadvertently opened the flood gates for a new, silent invasion.
New research has mapped the most detailed forecast to date for importing
potentially harmful invasive species with the ballast water of cargo
ships.
Scientists from the Universities of Bristol, UK, and Oldenburg,
Germany, have examined ship traffic data and biological records to
assess the risk of future invasions. Their research is published in the
latest issue of Ecology Letters.
Animals and plants can hitch a ride on cargo ships, hiding as
stowaways in the ballast tanks or clinging to the ship's hull. Upon
arrival in a new port, alien species can then wreak havoc in formerly
pristine waters. These so-called invasive species can drive native
species to extinction, modify whole ecosystems and impact human economy.
Some regions, such as the San Francisco Bay or Chesapeake Bay, have
even reported several new exotic species per year. The knock-on effects
to fishermen, farmers, tourism and industry create billions of US
dollars in damage every year. Conservationists and ship engineers are
now trying to prevent the next big invasion. But without knowing when
and where it may occur, their possibilities remain limited.
As part of the research project, funded by the Volkswagen
Foundation, the team obtained detailed logs of nearly three million ship
voyages in 2007 and 2008. Depending on the particular route travelled
by each ship, the researchers estimated the probability that a species
survives the journey and establishes a population in subsequent ports of
call. Although this probability is tiny for any single voyage, the
numbers quickly add up because modern cargo traffic volumes are
enormous.
Professor Bernd Blasius from the University of Oldenburg and one of
the researchers involved in the study, said: "Our model combines
information such as shipping routes, ship sizes, temperatures and
biogeography to come up with local forecasts of invasion probabilities."
The final tally reveals the hotspots of bioinvasion. Large Asian
ports such as Singapore and Hong Kong but also US ports like New York
and Long Beach are among the sites of highest invasion probability.
These waterways are notoriously busy, but, traffic is not the only
important factor.
The North Sea, for example, does not rank among the top endangered
regions despite intense shipping. Temperatures here are lower, making it
more difficult for alien species to survive. However, arrivals from the
other side of the Atlantic pose a serious threat to the North Sea.
Most invaders are predicted to originate from the North American east
coast.
Hanno Seebens from the University of Oldenburg said: "We also
compared our model results to field data. And, indeed, most of the alien
species actually do originate from there."
As severe as the risk of future invasions may be, the study also
contains a hopeful message. If ship engineers could prevent at least
some potential invaders from getting on board, the total invasion risk
could be substantially mitigated.
By successfully removing a species from 25 per cent of the ballast
tanks arriving at each port (eg with filters, chemicals or radiation),
the overall invasion probability decreases by 56 per cent. The reduction
is so disproportionately large because the effect of ballast water
treatment multiplies at successive stopovers.
Bioinvasion is, as the researchers admit, a complex process, and
records of past invasions are far from comprehensive. Facing these
uncertainties, they simulated various different scenarios.
Interestingly, the key results are comparable for different models,
predicting the same hotspots and global highways of bioinvasion. The
traffic on the main shipping routes plays the greatest role for the
calculation.
Dr Michael Gastner, Lecturer in Engineering Mathematics at the
University of Bristol, added: "Ship movements in the past few years are
well documented, but there are many unknowns about future trade routes."
For example, the future of the world economy remains uncertain, and
Arctic passages may become navigable as a consequence of global warming.
Future simulations will also have to take into account which
engineering solutions for ballast water treatment will eventually be
adopted by port authorities.
